Pitchout: Wednesday September 28th

We have a big 14-game slate tonight, so let’s dig in.


Jake Arrieta- Arrieta has been up and down over the last two months but is coming off a fantastic outing in his last start against St. Louis striking out 10 over seven shutout innings. Arrieta is our top projected pitcher on DK tonight.

Jeff Samardzija- Jeff Samardzija faces a Colorado team tonight that he has dominated thus far on the season. Samardzija has averaged 25 DK points over his three starts against the Rockies with 23 K’s in 22 innings. Samardzija has our second highest win % expectancy tonight.

Jose De Leon– De Leon makes his fourth career start tonight against the same Padres team that he made his MLB debut against earlier this month. De Leon notched nine K’s in six innings while scoring 25.9 DK points. De Leon has our second highest expected K rate of the night.


Cole Hamels- Hamels numbers are nowhere near as good at home in Arlington this season with an ERA over two runs higher than his road ERA. Hamels does however strike out hitters at an elite rate and faces a Brewers team that strikes out at the third highest rate in the majors against left handed pitching. Hamels does have some risk due to the long ball threat the Brewers pose but Hamels has our top projected K rate tonight and has the most upside of any pitcher tonight.

Ervin Santana- Santana faces the Royals tonight for the fifth time this season. In his previous four starts Santana has racked up 27 K’s in 22.2 innings. In his last start in KC on August 21 Santana had 10 K’s and 30.8 DK points. Ervin has some upside tonight against the Royals and will likely go overlooked.

Francisco Liriano – Liriano has been very good in his seven starts with the Blue Jays striking out five batters or more in five of them. The Orioles surprisingly rank in the bottom five in WOBA vs. lefties and also strikeout at a 22.2% rate making this a solid matchup for Liriano.

Blake Snell- The talented young lefty takes on the White Sox tonight. The biggest question with Snell is always command as he tends to strikeout a lot of hitters and walk a lot of hitters and thus not be able to go deep into games. Fortunately the White Sox have only a 7.3% walk rate against lefties ranking in the bottom 10 in the majors. Snell has 25 point upside and makes for a good GPP play at only $7000 on DK tonight.

Quick pitches- Keep an eye on the Cleveland lineup tonight, if it’s as awful as last night then Michael Fulmer becomes one of the top options tonight across the board. Sonny Grey makes his return tonight but will only throw one or two innings. Avoid him everywhere. Jake Arrieta makes his final start of the season tonight and with the Cubs having home field locked up I don’t expect the Cubs to push him at all. I would be surprised if he goes more than six innings making him an ok play for cash games but a reasonable fade in GPPs.

Those are the main pitchers I’m looking at for tonight. Good luck in your contests!

Mike Mellings

Started playing DFS in 2013 during MLB season, qualified for the Draftstreet Baseball Championship in 2014. Play all sports, specializing in MLB and NHL. Find me on Twitter at @klinkdfs

klink has 41 posts and counting.See all posts by klink

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