Thoughts On a Season Gone By
Well its about that time on the calendar where the playoffs hit the second round and there are more or less no meaningful days of hockey DFS left unless you want to play the degen split slates, which I might.
This season was a totally different one for me than any season past. I started playing NHL DFS a little over two seasons ago. I got in finally on the tail end of the 2013-2014 season. I was hooked immediately, but I took my game to the next level this year by creating my own projections along with creating this site. By digging deep into the data and trying to remove as much bias as I could from my roster selections I had my most profitable season to date.
It’s been a season of exploration and trying to get better at the DFS craft. I remember writing this first post on the site back in September and I was just hooked on what the data had to say. Then I started to look into creating my own metrics that weigh ice time that would give me even greater insight by making the numbers talk. I looked into how bad some goalies really are. There were some days that the projections were better than I was when I had SOME of the right guys for a cash but not ALL of the right guys for a whopping GPP finish. I started looking at rest and psychological factors like “getaway games” There were nights I tilted my ass off because I last minute swapped goalies. I got some other people to write some really good stuff for the site too, like this, this and this.
Overall I had alot of fun with the site and the projections this season. I’ve expanded to baseball and am working on a whole new project I hope to be proud of over the next few weeks. If you subscribed for the season or bought the projections for one day. I really hope they were profitable for you and gave you an edge over your competition. Now let me get into just some random thoughts about teams, players and who I used too much or too little this year.
Favorite Team to Use – Whoever was playing Ottawa. Until at least the halfway maybe 2/3rd point of the season, people still thought Ottawa was a decent team, but a deeper look into their metrics suggested they weren’t. They gave up a ton of shots and it was only a matter of time before those shots led to goals. Until late in the year when it was fashionable to do so, I stacked against Ottawa more than most players.
Favorite Player to Use – How can you not say Ovechkin? He’s just such a fun player to use. You know he’s going all out to score goals, and he was the go-to guy on the top ranked power-play in the league. He’s never been shy about unleashing a barrage of shots at the goaltender either. Remember that 15 shot game against Detroit? I played Ovi maybe a bit more than the crowd, if that’s even possible, especially on FanDuel where the softer pricing allowed him to fit more often.
Favorite Stack to Use – I’d have to say it was the Panthers 1st line of Huberdeau-Barkov and Jagr. I was on them right before and during their double digit win streak. This is when they became the chalk play but they continued to pay off through that streak. If felt like (yeah I know a bad word to say when talking about data) that when this line scored all three players contributed to the goal pretty often.
Most Tilting Team – The SHORKS. How can it be any other team other than the SHORKS. Just when you thought they’d have a great night, they would flop. Just when you thought they had a tough matchup that night, they’d win 4-0. All season long I never got a good read on them, and on many nights would just avoid them.
Most Tilting Player – It hast to be Brent Burns. Like the Kane line I’ll talk about below, Burns was equally capable of a 2G, 1A, 8 SOG game, or the 0G, 0A and 2SOG game. If you were going to pay that hefty price tag you absolutely had to have the production. With the Sharks being on the west coast, Burns often became the late night hammer than could crush you or send you to the top.
Most Tilting Stack – The Patrick Kane line. Why? because these guys often made or broke your night. If you didnt have them and they went off you were sunk almost no matter what else happened. If you did have them, you needed production not only from this line but from your tertiary players as well to separate you from the crowd that was using the Kane line. I’m sure I played Kane less than the crowd did, and although he was the league’s leading scorer, the fade worked enough for it to be a profitable choice.
Looking forward there are going to be changes to the site offerings for next year. In short they are going to be a whole lot better and more easily accessible. There will be more staff, a new site and more access to what you need to win. Between now and next October, I will be rolling out team and division previews and how those changes affect DFS. The future is bright for DFS Hockey Projections. Come along with us!
(Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/NHLI via Getty Images)