There are Must Plays

DFS Hockey Projections Model


Today’s Complete Projections

Colton Parayko has played nine games so far this year for the St. Louis Blues. Before his two goal performance back on the 15th in Calgary he was a relative unknown to both the DFS community or the hockey community at large. After which people started asking, “who is this guy.” The St. Louis blue-line has been locked down for the last several years be Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo, and rightly so. Both players are very good defensemen and deserve their reputation. 

When Shattenkirk went down to injury the opportunity arose. The easy choice to insert into your lineups was Pietrangelo. The Blues would need someone to run the second power-play unit, possibly Jay Boumeester? Colton Parayko had other plans however, and he’s now seeing a tremendous amount of vTOI on a very good team at a cheap price. This is how value is found. 


The clip above is from Frozen Pool, which is a tool from Dobber Hockey. You can search either by the last games lines or the last three games lines. As you can clearly see Parayko controls nearly all the power-play minutes for the Blues and is seeing an even third split in time at even strength. Although his price has come up off the bottom, his price on most sites is still near minimum. The value here is too high to ignore. Even if he’s likely to be 95% owned you still have to consider playing him because of the value he will add to your lineups. 


He’s also producing, which makes him someone that you have to play every time out. Through nine games Parayko has six points, 20 shots and 18 blocked shots. In just the last three games, his ice time has jumped to over 20 minutes a night, he has a goal, two assists, nine shots and 11 blocked shots. Last night his price on DraftKings was $3100. It was $3600 on FanDuel. As long as his price stays low and he continues to see the amount of ice-time he’s seeing there is no good reason to keep him out of your lineups. Don’t expect the price to stay low for long. The time to play him is right now, every night.

When people talk about fades, it’s usually with a higher priced player in a good matchup. If you happen to fade that player and he doesn’t perform you’ve already set yourself up for a chance at a good finish. There is no real way to fade an obvious value like Parayko. He shoots the puck at a decent rate (over two shots per game so far) and he blocks shots. He’s priced well below even an average priced defenseman. Including him in your lineups allows you to play some of the higher priced players you want. When his price rises and Shattenkirk comes back and eats into his ice-time, especially on the power-play, consider playing someone else. Until then keep riding that train. 

Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

ledgersko has 223 posts and counting.See all posts by ledgersko

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