Welcome to “The 6th Man” everyone! This column is designed to give you an in depth breakdown of all the best value plays for tonight’s NBA contests.
As always, make sure you’re reading Brent and Tyler’s work written earlier in the day. Those boys do great work helping you build some foundational lineups before coming here and looking for the salary savers.
For some reason, the NBA decided to have the Bulls/Pacers game play at 3PM eastern time so that game shouldn’t be on our radar. Besides that, we have 9 games to dig through so let’s get to it.
T.J. McConnell (DK $3300, FD $3800)
The Sixers are going to be without Sergio Rodriguez tonight, meaning T.J. is going to draw the start for him. What a perfect time to get a cheap punt at PG, going up against the Denver Nuggets. I’m expecting him to see north of 30 minutes today against the team giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing PG’s.
A lot of what makes Denver such an awesome team to attack is how many assists they’re giving up to point guards, being one of 6 teams allowing more than 9 assists per game to the position. Well, a lot of what makes Sergio so appealing when he gets minutes is the assists he’s able to rack up. He’s averaging 8.5 assists per 36 minutes.
He’s averaging a respectable .86 DKPTS per minute on the season and you may remember the one lone start he had earlier this year when we were all on him against Detroit. He ended up one assist shy of a triple double, scoring 44 DKPTS. Only problem is that he’s going to be mega chalk. I’m nearly a hundred percent certain at the time of writing this, he’ll be the highest owned player on the night and for good reason. The price and matchup is just too good to ignore. If you wanna fade for tourney’s, I understand but as a cash game man, this is right up my alley.
Also worth mentioned for anyone playing FD, that Matthew Dellavedova is missing tonight’s game against the Wolves. Malcolm Brogdon, who was already earning big minutes and the trust of Jason Kidd will be starting for the Bucks tonight. The matchup is also really damn good and I’m likely going to be using him at SG on DK, since he’s eligible over there. If you want a decent pivot of T.J., he’s your guy or you can punt the position all together and play both.
Seth Curry (DK $4100, FD $4300)
The Curry brothers will be facing each other tonight at The Oracle. The last time this happened, Seth went off for 38.3 DKPTS in 38 minutes of play on November 9th. The minutes won’t obviously be there this time as that game was played without both Barea and Williams.
The Mavs won’t have Barea but still have 4 healthy point guards tonight in Williams, Harris, Jackson and Curry. This game has blowout written all over it as the Warriors are currently 18 point favorites. There is a bit of worry that Curry didn’t get blowout run when the Mavs got blasted by the Rockets the other night but I’d like to think that changes tonight. Seth is gonna be up for this game and even though he was pretty dreadful the first time these teams met, he still shot the ball 17 times to go along with 9 assists.
It’s not as if he needs a blowout to get minutes either. He’s averaging 25 minutes a game for the month of December and scored under 20 DKPTS in only 2 games since December 12th. Funny thing is that I would think he’s actually more of a cash game option than a GPP play, because of the consistency.
Tony Snell (DK $3600, FD $3800)
Speaking of consistency, Tony Snell surprisingly has been just that as of late. With the exception of the 6.3 DKPTS game against Cleveland, he’s scored 20 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. I don’t really like much of the value at SF to be honest so Snell is kind of here by default. I’d much rather find the money to get Otto Porter or Tobias Harris but Snell is fine if you need to go here.
I’ve never been the biggest fan of Snelly Cat. As a Bulls fan, I’ve seen him have every opportunity to succeed and he never really did shit with those opportunities. MIL must have seen something the Bulls didn’t when trading Michael Carter-Williams for him. As a member of the Bucks, Snell is averaging more minutes (29.3) than he ever did in CHI but her per 36 numbers suggest, he’s still the same player (21.53 DKPTS per 36). Basically if his shot isn’t falling, you’re not getting much else out of him except for maybe a few rebounds.
A lot of the shots he’s taking are from deep. Just two games ago, he attempted 11 three pointers making 6 of them. Then against Detroit, he was 3-3 from three. The matchup against the Timberwolves isn’t optimal but they are allowing the 5th most three pointers to opposing Small Forwards which definitely works in Snell’s favor.
Markieff Morris (DK $5200, FD $4400)
I hate what FanDuel did splitting slates because of the Bulls game and leaving key games out like this one from their main slate. This is by far my favorite game of the night to target. FanDuel is just so bad. So so so fucking bad.
Besides Kieff being a nice value play, this gives me a chance to remind you that the Wizards are in such an amazing spot tonight, especially if Beal is out. They’re going to be playing the fastest team in the league and the 3rd worst defense, the Brooklyn Nets. the over/under for this game is sitting at 220 at the moment, making it the highest expected scoring game of the night. Beal sprained his ankle Wednesday night and missed shootaround this morning. He avoided a serious injury but I’d be surprised if they played him against this Nets team. Plain and simple, they don’t really need him.
Without Beal, everyone in the Wizards starting lineup sees a boost. The Wizards played 3 games without Beal earlier this season and Kieff averaged over 36 DKPTS per game, highlighted by a 51.75 DKPT game against the Bulls. He averaged 16 FGA’s in those games. With Beal out, he sees a plus/minus of +2.5 DKPTS (second highest on the team) and a 3.9 USG bump (3rd highest). There’s a realistic chance I roster 4 Wizards tonight if Beal is out.
Even if Beal plays, I suspect he’ll be limited and the matchup is worth taking a flier on Morris alone. The Nets are giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to PF’s and the 7th most real life points. I understand how volatile he’s been to roster all season but if there was ever a perfect get right game, this is it. These team met earlier and he scored 30.8 DKPTS in a game that Beal played in.
Greg Monroe (DK $4500, FD $5000)
I wrote him up in a revenge game the other day against DET and he produced for us in a big way scoring, 34.3 DKPTS. The best part about that performance was that he played 27 min in a lopsided victory.
He’s now played at least 20 minutes in 3 straight games and 2 straight games of 10 field goal attempts. At this point, you already know that it’s always about the minutes with Monroe. If he sees them, you’re golden because of the 1.21 fantasy points per minute he’s averaging. You would think he sees minutes again tonight against a bigger Timberwolves front court. Speaking of the Timberwolves, you should also know by now that they’re becoming a fantasy paradise for opposing centers.
They’re allowing the 8th most fantasy points to big men and the 5th most real life points. KAT will be a better defender one day because of Thibs but that day is not here yet. I also like Henson for the same reasons regarding the matchup but I think Monroe is the guy that really possesses the upside here.