Take a Look at Last Nights Projections
For a link to last nights projections that I mail to subscribers, scroll to the bottom and download the file.
Top Projected Stacks:
- Dallas Stars 1’s: Benn-Eakin-Seguin (13.56 ExPts)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 1’s: Dupuis-Crosby-Hornqvist (13.03 ExPts)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 2’s: Perron-Malkin-Kessel (12.19 ExPts)
Most of the top scores I saw last night in GPP action had some combination of the Pittsburgh lines. I saw some full line stacks of their 1’s and some mini-stacks of Malkin and Kessel. The combination of Crosby-Hornqvist-Malkin really paid off if you could get them all in your lineups; they netted 19.5 points on DraftKings. Kessel added 3.5
For the Stars, their scoring came late in the game. The Benn/Seguin pair finished with ten points, but Eakin finished with a disappointing 0.5 points. They didn’t quite hit value, but weren’t a flop. This was a fairly risky pick because of how expensive they were ($21,000 for the line). Vancouver has been a pesky good team on the road over the last few years, and although the Stars won in overtime. the Canucks forced them into a furious comeback to win.
- Dallas Stars 1’s: Benn-Eakin-Seguin (13.47 ExPts)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 1’s: Drouin-Stamkos-Callahan (13.21 ExPts)
- Pittsburgh Penguins 1’s: Dupuis-Crosby-Hornqvist (13.17 ExPts)
Over on FanDuel, the projections had two of the same stacks as top plays, but liked the Tampa Bay Lightning as the second highest projected stack of the night. The Lightning disappointed overall losing to the lowly Avalanche 2-1; this line was done when Drouin was a late scratch. The Penguins first and second lines were similarly productive on both sites.
Top Value Stacks:
- Pittsburgh Penguins 1’s: Dupuis-Crosby-Hornqvist ($1397/ExPts)
- New York Islanders 2’s: Kulemin-Nielsen-Okposo($1427/ExPts)
- Winnipeg Jets 2’s: Perrault-Scheifele-Ehlers ($1469/ExPts)
Taking a look at the value stacks here shows how good of a play the Penguins 1st line proved to be. Not only were they the second highest projected scoring team of the night, they were also projected to return the best value of any available lines.
Although Ryan Strome was a late scratch, the Islanders 2nd line stayed intact throughout the game. Okposo and Nielsen were also tasked with first unit power-play time. Overall this line was a dud as were the Islanders in general outside of value play Nick Leddy. Frans Nielsen did find the back of the net, but it wasn’t enough for this line to return value.
A profitable lineup stack last night would have been Pens 1’s and Jets 2’s. If you combined them in a GPP play you at least cashed. If you combined them with current must play Colton Parayko you likely tripled your money or better.
- Winnipeg Jets 2’s: Perrault, Scheifele, Ehlers ($1257/ExPts)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 1’s: Drouin-Stamkos-Callahan ($1408/ExPts)
- Tampa Bay Lightning 2’s: Palat-Johnson-Kucherov ($1532/ExPts)
The Jets did prove to be valuable, by not only beating the Chicago Blackhawks, but each of the second liners finished with a point, were all positive and combined for eight shots. Back to the Lightning, it was best if you faded them last night.
That’s just a look at some of the line stacks. The projections are easily filtered to show you value plays at each position on any of the major sites. I tweeted out some value picks on defense (like Parayko, Maatta and Leddy). Here is just a small part of what goes into making projections each night.
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