Stars Of The Night: Wednesday December 14th

Throughout the year the DFS Datalytics Team will be giving you our “Stars of the Night”. These are the guys we feel will exceed expectations and provide value to your lineups regardless of their price. 

Stars of the Night

Adam Jazdzewski: D – Dougie Hamilton (CGY)- $5,600 DK, $5,700 FD

Well if we did a Star of the Night last night, my star WAS going to be Jeff Skinner. I had him in 100% of all my lineups last night. I’m going to get off the total chalk for this pick and go out to Western Canada and tab Dougie Hamilton. I’m also going to go a little “Game Log Warrior” on you. Whatever happened to Dougie once the calendar flipped to December has been positive. Maybe this is the Dougie that Flames fans have been waiting for?

Maybe he was waiting for it to get cold outside to heat up. Whatever the case, in 26 games before December, Hamilton totaled 4+ shots just five times. In the five December contests the Flames have had, he’s hit 4+ shots in four of them. Perhaps first year coach Glen Gulutzan is urging him to shoot more? In total he has five points and 24 shots over the last five games.

Home ice has been kind to Hamilton so far this year. In 14 home games he has eight points and 41 shots. Tampa Bay has been pretty shaky on the road, and we are projecting the Flames for 2.92 goals, which is tied for the second most on the slate. Ben Bishop should get the start, and although he’s not been his Vezina-self all year long he’s been a bit better on the road with a 2.56 GAA; he only has four wins in 11 road starts however.

Chad Johnson has been playing above his head, if he cracks the Flames could be forced to play catch up, adding to the shot potential. Although he’s priced as the 5th highest d-man on DK and the 6th highest on FD, on a short slate you can separate from the pack if a low-owned player gets his. Hamilton provides a solid floor and has been filling the net of late. People don’t usually like to “pay” for D which could further reduce his ownership. He’s a good value on any site tonight. Loose!

Adam Daly: W – Wayne Simmonds (PHI)- $7,000 DK, $7,100 FD

Wayne Simmonds gets a plum matchup tonight against the struggling Colorado Avalanche, who enter the night ranked 5th in PP opportunities allowed (3.9/Game), and 7thworst in the league for penalty killing (79.25%). Combined with a good referee matchup – Trevor Hansen and Jean Hebert are calling the game and rank 9th and 8threspectively in PP/Game, and are tied for 7th in Penalties/Game – that should put the power play prowess of Simmonds on display.

As a team, Philadelphia connects on 24.14% of their power plays which is second best in the league, and have also had the most opportunities with the extra man. Wayne Simmonds is a large part of that, with 14 of his 28 points coming on the power play (eight goals and six assists). Simmonds takes double-digit shots on goal per 60 on the power play (10.4) and has for his entire career, and has put up at least 5.1PPPts/60 in four of his six seasons in Philadelphia.

It’s generally an easy play to pick on Calvin Pickard and the Avs, as in their last 10 games they’ve let in less than three goals only twice. Pickard himself hasn’t been as bad as the team in front of him, sitting with a 0.913SVP in 10 games played; his Really Bad Start percentage is atrocious though, with 33% of his starts being “bad” (SV% below 85%). In a game that should have a good SOG pace, Pickard could easily let a handful of goals behind him, and with Semyon Varlamov being injured Colorado probably wouldn’t look to give Pickard the hook.

Simmonds comes into the game with six points in his last five games (four goals, two assists), helping the Flyers along to a nine-game win streak. He hasn’t seen less than 19:20 in his last five games, even on a “second” line with Brayden Schenn and Travis Konecny. He makes a good single bullet, but could also be paired with Schenn for PP1 exposure. For the truly bold, a four-man forward stack of Giroux/Schenn/Voracek/Simmonds gives exposure to the entire forward grouping of the first power play, and exposure to the top two lines at even strength.

Chris Morais: G – Steve Mason (PHI)- $7,900 DK, $8,300 FD

Picking a goalie on a 4-game slate isn’t easy. There isn’t much choice, and most DFS players will go with the safe play. Tonight’s safe play is Steve Mason, even if the Flyers are on the road.

The Avalanche got destroyed in Montreal on Saturday, but followed up that performance with a win in Toronto the following night. You never know what you’re going to get with Colorado, and despite them playing at home, the Flyers are on a roll right now and look unstoppable.

Mason hasn’t lost a game since November 25th ( seven straight wins). In that time, he’s failed to eclipse the 20-point plateau on FanDuel just twice. At $8300, Mason is a real bargain. The same can’t be said about his price tag on DraftKings, but he’s still under 8K.

Philadelphia is a scoring machine that just can’t be stopped right now. Unless Colorado finds a way to contain Claude Giroux and company, the Flyers should cruise to another easy win. Make the easy choice and go with Mason. You’ll be glad you did.

Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

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