NFL Sunday is in the rearview mirror and it’s time to jump back into the MLB DFS grind with a ten game slate. It’s Monday and Monday’s suck so let’s dig into a few stacks that can help us make some money to start off the week!
Vs Tim Adleman (R)
What happens when you get a pitcher who owns a 4.21 ERA, 5.21 xFIP and the third highest HH rate (34%) on the slate going against the Cubs in Wrigley field? Runs, and a lot of them. Tim Adleman takes the hill for the Reds tonight. He’s allowed a staggering 1.93 HR/9 in 51.1 IP. That’s definitely not a stat that you want to have when facing off against an offense as powerful as the Cubs. Adleman has given up 8 HRs in his last 4 games and we should see a few more added to that total tonight.
All of the Cubs bats are in play tonight but I think I’m going to stick to the good old 1-5 stack here. The cubbies are massive -227 favorites and also have the highest vegas implied team total at 5.8 runs. Remember, there is a game being played in Coors field and Vegas thinks that the Cubs have a shot to outscore both of those teams (COL vs STL). This will undoubtedly raise ownership levels on a Cubs stack but I think you can differentiate your roster with pitchers and your other three roster spots. Anthony Rizzo is the only Cubs player priced above $5,000 so fitting a full five man stack shouldn’t be too difficult. Chicago is our highest projected stack tonight.
Dexter Fowler .337 wOBA, .147 ISO
Kris Bryant .381 wOBA, .242 ISO
Anthony Rizzo .402 wOBA, .270 ISO
Ben Zobrist .339 wOBA, .158 ISO
Addison Russell .341 wOBA, .145 ISO
Expected ownership: HIGH
New York Mets
Vs Aaron Blair (R)
One of the ugliest box scores that I’ve seen all year for a pitcher belongs to Aaron Blair. Okay, that might be exaggerating a bit but it’s very unsightly, to say the least. Blair has allowed 11 home runs in 54.2 IP and will be making his first start since August 28th against the Giants. In that game, Blair served up 3 HRs, 5 ER on 8 hits in just 4 innings of work. His two previous starts came in June (strained knee had him on the DL) against the Mets where he let up a total of 11 runs and three homers. If that doesn’t make you want to stack the Mets then maybe this will: Blair has only gone six innings twice this year in his 12 starts sporting a horrendous 8.23 ERA while only striking out 12% of batters faced. Our projections have him giving up the third highest amount of runs (3.11) on this slate. Blair is only 24 years old and is sure to see better times in the majors but it doesn’t look like things will get any better against the Mets tonight or for the remainder of the year.
Since I rambled on about how bad Blair is we don’t have to dig that deep into Mets hitters. Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,300) is hot right now and has solid numbers vs RHP. Yoenis Cespedes (I pronounce his first name Yo-Anus because of my Minny accent) is also a strong play tonight but has been dealing with quad soreness and he exited yesterday’s game early with nausea and dizziness so make sure he is in the lineup. Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson make up the other two OF spots with Cespedes being the third. Bruce has been cold and hasn’t hit a home run since Sept. 9th. Hopefully that keeps ownership on him down and he produces for us. The Mets will be somewhat chalky but I don’t think a lot of people will have all three Mets OF in their lineup. Vegas currently has an implied team total of 4.6 runs for the Mets and they come in as our third highest projected stack.
Jose Reyes .275 wOBA, .119 ISO
Asdrubal Cabrera .336 wOBA, .216 ISO
Yoenis Cespedes .351 wOBA, .243 ISO
Curtis Granderson .337 wOBA, .243 ISO
Jay Bruce .349 wOBA, .274 ISO
Expected ownership: MEDIUM
Vs Clayton Richard (L)
Let me start out by saying that Clayton Richard isn’t a bad pitcher or one that I would usually attack but tonight is a different story against the leftie mashing Dbacks. This game is being played in Petco Park so it’s almost guaranteed to go over-looked, especially considering it’s a late game. Richard has been solid on the season allowing just .53 HR/9 with a 3.00 ERA. He does, however, have a .352 wOBA vs RHB and the Dbacks are stacked with righties. Richard only allows a 17% HH rate against LHB but that number jumps to 29% against RHB. While that HH% is nothing special it does show that he can vs RHBs.
It seems like the Dbacks make this article every time they face a leftie but it’s for good reason. Arizona has the second highest batting average against LHP (.278 AVG) and ranks first among all major league clubs with a .353 wOBA. We have seen the Dback put up some big numbers at home and hopefully they can come through for us on the road as an under-owned stack on this ten game slate. This is a risky GPP only play since Richard has been good this year and it’s in such a friendly pitchers park but I’ll take my chances.
Jean Segura .305 wOBA, .159 ISO
Chris Owings .342 wOBA, .192 ISO
Paul Goldschimdt .446 wOBA, .219 ISO
Yasmany Tomas .346 wOBA, .338 ISO
Brandon Drury .336 wOBA, .216 ISO
Expected ownership: LOW
Vs Jhoulys Chacin (R)
Texas plays host to the Angels tonight in Arlington and we could see some fireworks between these two clubs. Vegas is giving this game the second highest total on the night at 10 runs and has an implied team total of 5.8 runs, tied with the Cubs for the highest TT on the night.
Jhoulys Chacin shocked the MLB DFS world in his last start where we saw him go six innings and only allow one run which came off of a solo shot in the fifth inning to Kyle Seager. Unfortunately for me, I was all in on the Mariners in that game and I’m still a little salty about it but that won’t deter me from stacking against Chacin again tonight. Chacin doesn’t let up the long ball too often (0.93 HR/9) but he still owns a 1.50 WHIP and has a tough matchup against a strong Rangers lineup in a good hitters park.
Texas has a couple of LHBs that are in play tonight. Chacin has a .345 wOBA against lefties so look into guys like Rougned Odor, Mitch Moreland, and possibly Nomar Mazara but we will have to see where he is at in the batting order. The Rangers bats aren’t overly expensive which is always a plus. You don’t have to go with a full stack here but I think some exposure would be a good idea.
Ian Desmond .331 wOBA, .168 ISO
Carlos Beltran .346 wOBA, .211 ISO
Adrian Beltre .350 wOBA, .196 ISO
Rougned Odor .341 woBA, .250 ISO
Jonathan Lucroy .372 wOBA, .195 ISO
Expected ownership: MEDIUM