Each day I will be sharing a breakdown of my top GPP stacks of the night. Feel free to @ me in our chat room if you have any questions/comments/suggestions.
DET1: Henrik Zetterberg/Gustav Nyquist/Tyler Bertuzzi
DET2: Dylan Larkin/Tomas Tatar/Andreas Athanasiou
Possible add-ons: Niklas Kronwall (PP1 w/ Zetterberg, Nyquist, Tatar), Mike Green (PP2 w/ Larkin, Athanasiou, Bertuzzi)
There’s not a whole lot to choose from on today’s two game slate. I am all in on the Red Wings tonight – with about 65% exposure to DET2 and 35% to DET1. I’ll also have numerous “Josh-stacks” as well. Using my model, Henrik Zetterberg has matched or exceeded his projection in each of his last 12 games (which suggests a really nice floor for cash game use as well!). Tyler Bertuzzi gives you top line minutes and power-play time for just $2,800 on DK tonight. It’s the Dylan Larkin line that I love though – Larkin has been shooting the puck a lot lately and is getting big minutes on both the power-play and penalty kill. Craig Anderson is allowing well over three goals against per game, and the trio of Larkin/Athanasiou/Tatar is scoring almost five even strength goals per 60 this season. Against the Senators – who look disinterested in playing actual hockey lately – I expect them to have numerous chances tonight. Niklas Kronwall is never a great DFS play, but he does have some positive home/road splits, averaging over a half DK point more on home ice this season, and comes with a season low $2,800 price tag – which means he can easily hit value on peripherals alone.
NYR1: Mika Zibanejad/Mats Zuccarello/J.T. Miller
Possible add-on: Kevin Shattenkirk (PP1 w/ Zibanejad & Zuccarello)
In the other matchup tonight, I am firmly on the New York Rangers (heavy exposure to Lundqvist as well). Mika Zibanejad has not had a big DFS night since returning from his injury last month, but I think tonight could be the night that changes. J.T. Miller has replaced Rick Nash on the top line, and this Miller/Zuccarello/Zibanejad trio was a “thing” for a bit last season – in which they scored 3+ GF/60 and racked up 20+ HDCF/60. Besides the big game against Pittsburgh early in the season, the Kane/Hartman/Schmaltz line (which should get the NYR1 matchup) has not been great. Looking at only away games, this version of CHI2 has allowed 70+ CA/60, including 40 SA/60 and 16 HDCA/60. As a whole, Chicago has allowed 20 goals in it’s past five games, and will again be starting AHL’er Jeff Glass in goal. I like Kevin Shattenkirk as an add-on tonight – he is generally one of my least favorite DFS plays, but the Blackhawks allow a ton of peripheral points (SOG/BS) to opposing defensemen. With the lack of upside from the defense position tonight, I will likely have about 50% exposure to Shattenkirk.
NYR2: Kevin Hayes/Michael Grabner/Rick Nash
Possible add-on: Kevin Shattenkirk (PP1 w/ Nash)
I just talked about Chicago’s recent lack of success overall – and I will have some exposure to this line as well, as they are facing a bad goalie on a team giving up goals in bunches. They will likely get the tougher matchup against the Toews line, but Hinostroza hasn’t skated with Toews/Saad yet this season, so it’s a bit of an unknown whether or not they will have the same success with their new linemate.
OTT2: Derick Brassard/Mark Stone/Ryan Dzingel
Possible add-on: Erik Karlsson (PP1 w/ Brassard & Stone)
I will probably only have about 10-15% exposure to Ottawa,
but this is the line I want. They have some nice “fancy” numbers together – 58% CF, 74 CF/60 and 3.54 GF/60. Obviously I don’t like Ottawa much in general tonight, but I could see the game turning into a high scoring affair, as Jimmy Howard has had a tendency to play at his worst in what are perceived to be good spots. I will, on the other hand, have heavy exposure to Erik Karlsson tonight, as he’s the only defenseman on the slate with big upside – which is something we need to win GPP’s.
UPDATE (5:30 PM): I’m shifting my OTT2 shares to OTT1 (Duchene/Hoffman/Ryan). I happened to look at Ottawa’s power play units from their last game. The top unit was Ryan-Duchene-Dzingel-Karlsson-Chabot, and they played 86% of the power play time on ice. I don’t want all my Sens exposure with a line who’s best two players get minimal power play time, so I’m swapping. I will still have near 100% exposure to Karlsson.