Power-Play Expectations

This article will be breaking down expected PP points by Centres – Part 1 of a 3 part series, with Wingers and D-Men to follow – with an eye towards finding some added value. The players are split into Low ($4500-$5000), Medium ($5100-$5700) and High ($5800-$6500)*. Elite players won’t be looked at as their high cost carries an expectation of PP production. The expected PP points are calculated by taking each player’s usage percentage on the man advantage, their efficiency (scoring rate), and by using the average of 5.16 minutes on the PP per team per game.

The idea here is to give a list of players that can be best deployed in games that are projected to see a lot of power plays – check referee scouting, the opposition’s penalty history, their penalty killing percentage, etc.

DK costs as of 02/17

 

Low Cost Players

PLAYER NAME D.K. COST PP USAGE PPP/60 EXPECTED PPP/Gm DK FP/Gm
Tomas Plekanec $5000 49.5% 4.0 0.34 3.2
Boone Jenner $5000 38.3% 4.5 0.30 3.2
Kyle Turris $5000 61.5% 2.5 0.26 2.8
Leon Draisaitl $5000 50.0% 3.0 0.26 3.0
Ryan Kesler $5000 43.9% 5.3 0.40 3.0
Vincent Trocheck $4900 47.5% 4.5 0.37 2.8
Artem Anisimov $4900 47.4% 2.8 0.23 2.6
Eric Staal $4900 58.5% 2.1 0.21 2.6
Henrik Sedin $4800 63.2% 4.7 0.51 2.5
Paul Stastny $4800 59.6% 6.1 0.63 2.7
Carl Soderberg $4800 43.9% 5.7 0.44 3.0
Brock Nelson $4700 38.6% 2.0 0.13 3.0
Alex Galchenyuk $4700 46.0% 5.4 0.43 2.8
Adam Henrique $4700 52.2% 3.5 0.32 3.0
David Backes $4700 53.3% 3.5 0.32 2.7
Mika Zibanejad $4700 49.0% 3.8 0.32 2.8
Ryan Spooner $4700 64.8% 4.6 0.51 2.8
Brandon Dubinsky $4600 64.8% 3.6 0.40 2.7
JT Miller $4600 29.5% 2.3 0.12 2.5
Mikko Koivu $4500 64.3% 3.8 0.42 2.8

There are some hidden gems in the Low Cost player pool when looking at power-play points: Ryan Spooner sees 64.8% of Bruins power plays on the 1st unit and converts 4.6Pts/60 – giving him an expected PPP of about one every two games. Given his cost and DKFP/gm he compares favourably to players like Artem Anisimov – whose expectations are insanely low as he doesn’t see much or any 1st unit time, and Anisimov even has lower fantasy production at $200 more than Spooner.

Additionally, for varied reasons there are players that just don’t contribute to the power play – taking Kyle Turris as an example, he plays C on a 1st power play unit that primarily goes through the points to get pucks to the net. This means that more often the players along the half-wall or playing the point position will get the bulk of the scoring, with the rare rebound goal occuring.

Lower cost PPP value picks: Ryan Spooner, Henrik Sedin, Ryan Kesler, Carl Soderberg

Players to stay away from: Artem Anisimov, Brock Nelson, Kyle Turris, J.T. Miller

Medium Cost players

PLAYER NAME D.K. COST PP USAGE PPP/60 EXPECTED PPP/Gm DK FP/Gm
Sean Monahan $5700 58.1% 2.9 0.29 3.1
Dylan Larkin $5700 37.1% 1.7 0.11 3.3
Frans Nielsen $5600 57.0% 4.9 0.48 3.4
Henrik Zetterberg $5600 57.5% 6.1 0.60 3.0
Joe Thornton $5500 68.8% 4.5 0.53 3.0
Nazem Kadri $5400 49.3% 2.6 0.22 3.4
Bryan Little $5200 55.6% 4.3 0.41 3.2
Derek Stepan $5200 49.6% 2.6 0.23 2.7
Tyler Johnson $5200 48.3% 5.0 0.42 2.2
Jussi Jokinen $5100 46.4% 3.7 0.30 2.8
Mark Scheifele $5100 41.9% 3.1 0.22 2.9

Henrik Zetterberg leads the way with a 0.60 expected PPP return at only $5600 to play. Joe Thornton also offers a lot of value, but this medium-cost group as a whole performs pretty badly on the power play when compared to some players from the lower cost group. Some terrible numbers from Dylan Larkin, Mark Scheifele and Nazem Kadri, but the former two don’t see enough time with the extra man, and the latter is the only offensive weapon on a team devoid of talent.

High Cost players

PLAYER NAME D.K. COST PP USAGE PPP/60 EXPECTED PPP/Gm DK FP/Gm
Matt Duchene $6500 51.9% 4.2 0.37 3.6
Nathan MacKinnon $6400 55.5% 4.6 0.44 3.9
Anze Kopitar $6400 55.9% 4.9 0.48 3.8
Evgeni Kuznetsov $6400 45.5% 6.7 0.53 3.7
Logan Couture $6200 63.7% 5.3 0.59 2.9
Aleksander Barkov $6100 48.6% 4.7 0.39 3.1
Pavel Datsyuk $6100 55.2% 5.6 0.53 3.4
Jason Spezza $6100 62.2% 4.5 0.48 3.4
David Krejci $6000 70.6% 4.7 0.57 3.6
Jonathan Toews $6000 50.7% 2.3 0.20 3.2
Ryan Johansen $5900 59.3% 4.6 0.47 3.2
Jeff Carter $5900 48.0% 4.7 0.39 3.5
Derick Brassard $5900 57.4% 4.8 0.48 3.2
Ryan Getzlaf $5800 58.4% 4.6 0.46 3.1

This group starts to show the consistent power-play production you would expect from high cost, high TOI players. The obvious outlier from the chart above is Jonathan Toews and his dismal conversion rate – only 0.2 expected PPP/gm (this number was pulled before his last game). An outlier the other way would be David Krejci who sees 70.6% of his team’s power play time, the highest percentage out of all the listed players, with an expectation of 0.57PPP. A player to keep an eye on from this group is Logan Couture who started the year off slowly before getting hurt which makes his DKFP/gm unappealing for his cost, but with the amount of time he’s seeing playing with Pavelski, Burns et. al there’s a lot of added value.

Hopefully these stats help, good luck with lineups.

You can find me on twitter @adalyfrey

Recommended Posts

Leave a Comment