NFL Week Four Picks

NFL Week Four Picks

We have our first byes of the season with the Packers and Eagles having the week off. The Colts and Jaguars are playing in London at 9:30am on Sunday and are not part of the main slates this weekend. Those teams have some talented players that have won people a lot of money over the first three weeks. Luckily for us we still have some great games and matchup to consider for our DFS lineups. Take a look at who I have highlighted from this upcoming weekends action!

Here are the NFL Week Four Picks:

Cash Games

Quarterbacks:

Matthew Stafford ($8300 on FD, $7300 on DK) – Stafford ended last year red hot and has carried that over into throwing three touchdowns in two of his first three games this year. Stafford’s two games against the Bears last year: 405 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in one; 298 yards and three touchdowns in the other. The current Bears defense is now missing over half of their starters and is struggling in all facets of stopping opponents.

Cam Newton ($9300 on FD, $7800 on DK) – Cam has already shown us this year what he can do when facing an overmatched opponent in the 49ers. Even though he is on the road, the Falcons defense is in the bottom of the league in pressuring quarterbacks. When Cam has time to throw is when he is most dangerous. A big week after getting tormented by the Vikings looks likely for Cam playing in the comfortable Atlanta dome.

Kirk Cousins ($7600 on FD, $6500 on DK) – Cousins is second in the NFL in passing yards through the first three weeks with just under 1000 yards. But only has three touchdowns to go along with it. Positive regression is coming his way as he is currently 20% below the NFL average in red zone completion percentage. The Brown have let up at least 275 yards and two touchdowns in all three games so far this year. Cousins sits in a cushy spot at home against a weak defense and a chance for some positive regression.

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Running Backs:

Melvin Gordon ($7600 on FD, $6300 on DK) – Gordon is averaging 40% of his teams touches through three games. That includes the game where Woodhead was the feature back in Week One. Gordon has 14 red zone rushing attempts and two red zone targets in just the first three games. That’s an average of 4.6 rushing attempts and .6 targets per game. In comparison, Devonta Freeman led the league last year with 2.9 red zone attempts and .87 targets per game. Gordon is getting fed the ball all over the field and there is an emphasis to have him touch the ball once they get into the red zone. The Chargers have a Vegas implied team total over 28 this week.

Le’Veon Bell ($8300 on FD, $7500 on DK) – In Bell’s first game off suspension last year, he played on 95% of the snaps and had over 80% of the running back touches. Last year the Chiefs had a more formidable defense that Bell carved up for 137 all-purpose yards. He is a lock for heavy volume and scoring opportunities in a game that I think can be a sneaky shootout on Sunday Night Football.

LeGarrette Blount ($7500 on FD, $5000 on DK) – Blount has been the focal point of the offense in the three games so far this season without Tom Brady. That will continue this week when they play at home and have a beat up QB in either Garoppolo or Brissett playing. Blount is averaging 25 carries for 99 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game in the three games this year. The Bills blew out the Cardinals last week and David Johnson still managed 19 carries for 83 yards and two touchdowns. Feel safe with Blount’s workload for another week.

Carlos Hyde ($6800 on FD, $4200 on DK) – The 49ers are second in the NFL in rush percentage so far this year despite some of their negative game scripts. Hyde has received over 20 carries in two of the three games so far and scored two touchdowns in each. The Cowboys may be without Dez Bryant and that would play into the ball control game plan both teams want. The 49ers defense allows over 10 points less at home over the two seasons. This game is lining up to have Hyde fed with over 20 carries once again.

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Wide Receivers:

Antonio Brown ($9400 on FD, $9700 on DK) – As mentioned in Le’Veon Bell’s blurb, I believe this game could be a shootout. That would greatly benefit the matchup proof Brown. Despite the entire Pittsburgh offense struggling, Brown still accumulated 18 targets and had 12 catches for 140 yards. Brown will continue to get relentlessly fed and the Steelers are in a matchup where they should see the red zone several times playing at home on Sunday night. The Steelers have a Vegas implied team total over 26 this week.

Amari Cooper ($7600 on both) – Cooper had 7-109-1 last year against the Ravens. Cooper has also been getting the targets, but just missing on some of those explosive big plays so far this year. The last two number one wide receivers to face the Ravens have each had two touchdowns in Corey Coleman and Allen Robinson. Cooper can take that leap from all the targets and yards to putting together some scores against a suspect Ravens secondary.

DeAndre Hopkins ($8600 on FD, $8400 on DK) – Hopkins has received a steady workload of over eight targets per game to start the season. Hopkins last four games against the Titans are as follows: 5-95, 9-238-2, 8-94-1, 7-117-1. Expect Hopkins to be fed a lot in this bounce back matchup for the Texans after being shutout last week against the Patriots.

Marvin Jones ($7600 on FD, $7300 on DK) – Jones has been on absolute fire so far in his first three games with the Lions. He has yet to go under 85 yards receiving and blew up for 205 yards and two touchdowns last week. As noted with Stafford, the Bears defense is starting almost an entirely new unit from what they had in training camp. The chemistry with Stafford is real and I don’t expect it to slow down this week.

PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 28: Antonio Brown #84 celebrates his touchdown with Le'Veon Bell #26 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Heinz Field on September 28, 2014 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

Tight Ends:

Greg Olsen ($7900 on FD, $6000 on DK) – The Falcons can’t cover tight ends. They can’t get pressure on the quarterback either. Cam is going to be comfortable in the pocket and Olsen will have a big day running wherever he wants against this defense that has allowed over 23 points per game so far this year to opposing tight ends. Coby Fleener who had a combined 3 catches for 35 yards in the first two weeks had seven catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. Olsen is a lock for heavy volume and a couple of scoring opportunities looks likely.

Dennis Pitta ($5400 on FD, $3900 on DK) – Pitta is more valuable on DK as you get a full point for every catch. This year he has three, nine and six catches in the three games. He is looking healthy and getting a lot of targets from Flacco. The Raiders can be vulnerable to tight ends as they let up 10-180-1 against the Falcons in Week Two.

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Tournament Plays

Quarterbacks:

Joe Flacco ($7700 on FD, $5900 on DK) – The Ravens have a Vegas team total of 25 in the home matchup against the West Coast Oakland Raiders. Before last week’s dud by the struggling Titans, the Raiders had given up an average of over 400 yards passing and 3.5 touchdowns a game to opposing quarterbacks. With Flacco seeing heavy volume and a high team total, he could be in line for a big day against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this year.

Brian Hoyer ($6000 on FD, $5000 on DK) – At his price, you don’t need a record setting day from Hoyer to return value. The drop in price to him will give you a lot more room to fit in some of the high priced skill position players and give you a talented lineup. Hoyer has shown in the past the ability to step in and play well over a couple game stretch, but gets exposed over the course of a season. He threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week. Now he faces a Lions D that has let up ten touchdowns through the first three weeks.

Alex Smith ($6900 on FD, $5600 on DK) – The Steelers have been terrible this season in getting to the quarterback and only generating one sack through three games. They don’t have many more hits either. I believe the Steelers will put up a lot of points and the Chiefs will have to allow Smith to keep up and air it out all night while he sits comfortably in the pocket. Despite his reputation, Smith can have big games as seen in Week One where he had over 360 yards passing and three total touchdowns.

Running Backs:

Mark Ingram ($6800 on FD, $5900 on DK) – Ingram’s snaps and touches have increased every game so far this year. Last week he ended up with over 100 total yards and a touchdown. The Chargers are going to be putting up points at home against the Saints and Ingram will stay involved in the passing game where he caught four balls last week. The Chargers are allowing nine catches a game to running backs which will help offset any potential loss of rushing attempts for Ingram.

Jordan Howard ($5600 on FD, $3700 on DK) – No Jeremy Langford, no Ka’Deem Carey. Howard is in line for a potentially big workload for the Bears this week with street free agent Joique Bell being his main competition. While only 12 attempts, he is averaging 5.6 YPC and had four catches last week in his extended action. The Lions defense has allowed over 100 yards rushing to the opposing team in back to back games as well. Howard is a good option for a less expensive running back seeing heavy volume.

Dwayne Washington ($4500 on FD, $3800 on DK) – The Bears are seeing the most running plays against their defense in the NFL through the first three games. While Riddick will be the primary beneficiary in the passing game. Washington has a good shot at getting the majority of the carries and the goal line work. The Lions should be able to move up and down the field on this depleted Bears defense and Washington could be in line for multiple short scoring chances.

Wide Receivers:

Kelvin Benjamin ($7700 on FD, $7100 on DK) – The Panthers are going to move the ball at will against the poor Falcons defense. Benjamin was red hot in the first two games of the year having over 90 yards and at least one touchdown in each. He put up a donut last week and killed fantasy owners. This looks like a soft matchup for him in what could be a big bounce back week for one of Cam’s favorite red zone weapons. The Panthers have a Vegas implied team total over 26 this week.

Terrelle Pryor ($7000 on FD, $4300 on DK) – Last week Pryor did it all as he compiled 144 yards receiving, 21 yards rushing, 35 passing yards and a touchdown. Pryor has seen a 31% market share in targets for Cleveland this year. That is second in the league behind only Antonio Brown. With Cody Kessler in line for another start, Pryor could have another game where the offense is run through him.

Jeremy Maclin ($6900 on FD, $6000 on DK) – Maclin is averaging 9.7 targets per game through the first three weeks. He has had a quiet last two games, but gets to face a banged up Pittsburgh defense that is generating no pass rush. Alex Smith will have plenty of time to find his top weapon get open against the pedestrian Steelers secondary.

Will Fuller ($6700 on FD, $5300 on DK) –  Fuller gets the dream matchup of facing Perrish Cox this year who is arguably one of the worst starting corners in football this year. Fuller has been drawing over eight targets a game and looks to have get back on track after last week’s spanking by the Patriots. Fuller is always a big play threat back to his college days and it carried over in back to back 100 yard games to start his career.

Tight Ends:

Eric Ebron ($5800 on FD, $3700 on DK) – Ebron has received 20 targets through the first three games. He is facing a depleted Bears defense that is without over half of its initial starting unit. The Lions should be in line to have multiple scoring chances on the day and Ebron could be one of the main beneficiaries. The Lions have a Vegas implied team total over 24.

Hunter Henry ($4500 on FD, $2700 on DK) – Henry played 100% of the Chargers snaps in his Week Three start for the injured Antonio Gates. He turned those snaps into five catches for 76 yards. Gates won’t be playing again and the Chargers get to return home to play the horrible Saints defense. I can talk myself into any Chargers player this week including a talented rookie tight end who should play almost all the snaps and is a heavy discount on pricing for both sites.

Defenses:

Cardinals ($5300 on FD, $3900 on DK) – The Rams are the worst team in the NFL in red zone trips to start the year. The Cardinals are the best defense in terms of stopping teams from getting into the red zone. The Cardinals just got embarrassed in Buffalo and return home to face arguably the worst offense in the NFL this year. The Cardinals will be able to shut down Gurley and let their pass rushers and talented secondary take chances to force turnovers and make some big plays against an overmatched Rams team.

Ravens ($4400 on FD, $2400 on DK) – The Ravens have allowed the lowest yards per completion in the NFL at just over eight yards this year. They face a Raiders team that has travelled back and forth across the West and East Coast every game so far this year( Week One at New Orleans, Week Two at home, Week Three at Tennessee, flew home and now at Baltimore). The game is at 1pm eastern and the Raiders have a Vegas implied team total under 22.

Good luck!

Patrick Wendt

NFL Analyst for DFS Datalytics. I have been playing DFS since 2014, focusing on NFL and NHL. Follow me on twitter @GetWendted. #DataforWinning

pwendt has 27 posts and counting.See all posts by pwendt

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