NBA Datalytics: Monday October 31st

Happy Halloween!  I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend and is ready to get back to NBA DFS with this NBA Datalytics article.  We have a promo today so if you use promo code:  Halloween that will get you 10% off any of our memberships including our NBA membership!  Included in the NBA membership is access to our daily content which involves projections, three articles (The Morning Shootaround, The 6th Man, NBA Datalytics), GroupMe expert chat, lineup alerts, and many more so make sure you take advantage of this great deal if you are not already a member.

Play Him and Move On

I write this guy up every time he plays and I’m not going to stop until he cools down.  DeMar DeRozan has been absolutely balling to start the season.  In a four game slate, it’s going to be almost impossible not to play him.  His usage is through the roof at 40.7%!  He’s had 27 and 28 FG attempts in his first two games and he’s getting to the foul line like he normally does.  I’ll stop gushing and let you drool over his stat lines below.  If you need one more reason, Denver was 26th last year in DvP vs SG’s.

ddr

 

Bottled up Nuggets

Will Barton came onto the scene relatively early last year when he averaged over 20 PPG in the month of January.  With Gary Harris out of the lineup, Barton has averaged 38 MPG in his first two games and has delivered with 22 and 16 points.  It’s very difficult to take a guard versus the harassing Toronto backcourt, but if you are why not take someone who is going to see many minutes?  The Denver Nuggets frontcourt is getting crowded again and that’s frustrating.  Darrell Arthur is a true game-time decision tonight  and if he plays will be limited to 12-15 minutes.  For a frontcourt who already has Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, and Jusuf Nurkic they’ll likely ride the hot hand on any given night which is tough to project.

Look Beyond the Stars

For Chicago everyone wants to look at the guard play of Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, and Jimmy Butler and for good reason.  Don’t discredit Taj Gibson who, if he is going to play 25-30 minutes in a starting role every night, he’s going to be a threat to achieve a double double night in and night out.  His price has been rising: $5100 on DK and $5400 on FD, but he still comes at a nice discount for what he can do.  He’s averaging 15 PPG and 9 RPG in his first two games on 11 and 13 FGA.  Last season he shot 11 or more FGA only three times and he’s already received a usage bump of 7.3% from last year to the start of this year.

Battle of the Brothers

Robin Lopez and Brook Lopez battle each other tonight in what will be their 14th time playing against each other.  Both are now entering their 9th season in the NBA coming from Stanford University.  Brook was drafted 10th overall by the New Jersey (now Brooklyn) Nets and Robin was 15th by the Phoenix Suns.  Robin has been a bit of a journey man as he’s joining his 5th team in nine seasons, while Brook has been consistent staying with the Nets throughout his career.  Their roles have always been different in the NBA, but it definitely seems like Brook comes to play when facing his “older” twin brother.

robin-vs-brook

brook-vs-robin

Boogie Man in Atlanta

DeMarcus Cousins has had a great start to his 2016-17 campaign.  He’s averaging 30 points and is one rebound shy of 10 rebounds per game.  Last year when Dwight Howard was in Houston, Cousins avearged 20 PPG and 10.5 RPG despite shooting a very weak 33% from the field.  He’s $2000 higher on DK and only $600 higher on FD than the next best player, so that’ll be your first decision tonight if you are going to play or fade Boogie Cousins.  Given the quality of C and PF options tonight may be a night to fade Boogie.  It will all come down to how you construct your lineup especially on DK, where you will need to find a few value plays at other positions to have a solid lineup with Boogie in.  On FD it’s a completely different story with the easy pricing, you can definitely afford Boogie and get plenty of other top options in your lineup.  If you play Cousins, you can’t go wrong with his 36.1% usage rate so far this season along with his league high 46 FTA.

Please Draft Me!

It really is amazing the ownership level that Paul Millsap gets on a nightly basis.  No one must feel good when they plug him into their roster.  I get that he’s unlikely to post a 40 point game, but he’s one of the safest players in the league.  Tonight with Blake Griffin in a nice matchup, and a few cheaper plays that are worth playing at PF, I think Millsap once again gets overlooked.  Dennis Schroder comes in at a nice spot tonight against the Kings, and his shot seems to be coming along.  He doesn’t take many shots (9.5 FGA in last two games), but at least he’s shooting at a nice clip with 53% FG% and 40% 3P%.  With Schroder it’s all about the peripherals.  He’s going to get assists and he’s going to get steals.  Playing against Ty Lawson all night, you would think the advantage goes to Schroder.

Warren out the Nets

The Phoenix Suns young roster is fun to watch but they haven’t got a win on the board yet.  However, entering his third year in the NBA T.J. Warren is really starting to make a name for himself.  The SF out of NC State is off to a great start averaging 23.3 PPG on 17.7 FGA.  Minutes played = more opportunity to reach and exceed value, it’s that simply.  At $5400 on DK and $5500 on FD, Warren is averaging the 5th most MPG and that is PLENTY of time to reach and exceed his value tonight.  With Devin Booker off to a little bit of a slow start, Warren has taken this team on his back.  Booker is shooting 39% from the field and 20% from distance.  Against a very underrated defender in J.J. Redick, I would shy away from Booker in this game.  Last year Redick and the Clippers ranked 4th in DvP vs SG’s.

No Better Place to be

The Clippers seem to have a bit of a chip on their shoulder coming into this year, especially Blake Griffin who sat out a total of 49 games last season.  They are in a great spot tonight as they are 10.5 favorites at home against the Suns.  Griffin has recorded a double double in their first two games along with averaging 22.5 PPG and 11.5 RPG.  Griffin already has 7.5 FTA per game and now gets to face the team who lead the league in fouls last season.  The Suns were last in the league in DvP vs PG’s last season, so Chris Paul is in another spot to have a great game.  I mentioned this with Russell Westbrook in last Friday’s article, but steals are a huge way to bump up someone’s ceiling.  Paul had four steals last game vs Utah and now faces the Suns who love turning over the pumpkin.

 

Tyler Schmidt

26 years old from Bloomington, MN. I went to Augsburg College in which I played basketball for 4 years and graduated with a bachelor's degree in MIS (Management Information Systems). Even though I live in MN, I'm a die hard Green Bay Packers fan. You can reach out to me on Twitter @tyschmidt4.

tyschmidt22 has 86 posts and counting.See all posts by tyschmidt22

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