NBA Datalytics: Friday December 30
Happy Friday! We are blessed with a nice nine-game NBA slate tonight. There are 10 games, but the Bulls and Pacers tilt starts at 3:00PM CT so we’ll skip that one. This NBA Datalytics article is geared to help you with your NBA DFS lineup tonight by giving you interesting stats and analysis that you may not see. As always check out Brent’s The Morning Shootaround as he walks you through game by game of the news and notes and Chris’ The 6th Man as he gives you the value plays for tonight. There are a lot of fun tournaments on DK, so let’s dig in!
Punching Bag Enters Washington
The Nets battled all game only to lose to a Jimmy Butler buzzer beater last time out. Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out, making Sean Kilpatrick a solid play tonight. With Lin off the court this season, Kilpatrick see’s his usage rise 9.6% all the way up to 26.0%. The production doesn’t move that much for Brook Lopez as he continues to ball out. In his last eight games, Lopez has only scored under 20 points once. He’s also shooting a career-high from 37.8% from downtown this season. The Brooklyn Nets continue to be the punching bag for NBA DFS. Tonight it’s John Wall who is in the perfect spot going against this weak Brooklyn backcourt. The Nets are last in DvP vs PG’s and have given up the most OPPG in the league with 114.3 PPG. Wall is priced up at $10,300 on DK, so it’s a hefty price and there is potential blowout as WSH is favored by -8.5 and the Nets are 1-15 on the road this season.
In a great spot last night Hassan Whiteside disappointed. He finished with only eight points and 10 rebounds. Tonight is a similar spot for Whiteside as the Celtics are 26th in DvP vs C’s and 28th in rebounding differential. Tonight, however he may be without Goran Dragic. Dragic played last night, but did not look good during or after the game according to a Miami beat writer. Whiteside like I mentioned yesterday receives a major hit to his production without Dragic on the floor as his FPPM drops from 1.33 to 1.13 FPPM. The Celtics were down by 18 at the end of the third quarter, and fell short to the Cavaliers 124-118 last night. Isaiah Thomas led the Celtics with 31 points. They played about a month ago when Dragic was healthy and Thomas finished with 23 points. Al Horford in that game had 17 points, seven rebounds and eight assists. I love him tonight as the Heat are 21st in DvP vs C’s.
Pay Up For AD?
The Knicks suffered an OT loss to the Hawks last game and the frustration got the best of Carmelo Anthony as he was ejected for elbowing Thabo Sefolosha. After Anthony left the game, Derrick Rose and Kristaps Porzingis took over. Both played over 40+ minutes and Rose finished with 26 points to Porzingis’ 24 points. The matchup is a great one for both tonight as the Pelicans are 27th in DvP vs PG’s and 25th in DvP vs PF’s. Rose has been playing fantastic lately as he’s recorded 30+ DK points in five of his last six games. The one game he missed he left due to injury. For Anthony Davis, the spot can’t get much better as the Knicks are 29th in DvP vs C’s and are allowing 45.6 points in the paint which is 24th in the league. Davis’ 33.1% usage this season might be too good to pass up tonight. Langston Galloway revenge game tonight! At $3,000 on DK, he’s played 29, 26 and 31 minutes the last three games.
Rising Stars Game
The line of this game is currently even in this tough cross-state rivalry between the Bucks and Timberwolves. Giannis Antetokounmpo is priced below $10,000 on DK where he sits at $9,700. Giannis is in a great spot tonight as the Timberwolves are 28th in the league in most points in the paint, which is Giannis’ bread and butter. Jabari Parker was the star last game finishing with 31 points, nine rebounds and seven assists. He adds to the young talent on the floor tonight. The Timberwolves continue to lose, but man do they have some young talent. In a tough matchup last game, Karl-Anthony Towns recorded his first triple-double of his career as he finished with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. It’s also a great spot for Andrew Wiggins as the Bucks are 29th in DvP vs SF’s this season. If you can muster rostering a guy who lives with contested pull-up jumpers, Wiggins is your guy tonight.
Surprisingly Not Appealing
The Clippers have found themselves in a funk as they’ve lost four straight games. Those four teams have a combined record of 49-86, yikes! The good news is Chris Paul returned after missing three games with a hamstring injury. He returned to doing CP3 things as he recorded 21 points, eight rebounds and six assists. However, we just got word that CP3 is out for tonight’s game. DeAndre Jordan had 25 rebounds last game which was his third most in his career. The Rockets are fourth in rebounding differential, so I can’t see anywhere close to that repeat performance tonight. James Harden has recorded 13 straight games of over 50 DK points this season. The LA Clippers have been a tough team to crack defensively this season. They are sixth in defensive efficiency, fifth in OFG% and eighth in OPPG. There is blowout concern now without CP3 on the floor, but Harden should dominate this game.
Quick Sniff and Move On
The Pistons and Hawks have the lowest O/U on the board tonight currently sitting at 201. It’s a very difficult matchup for both big men in Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard whom I love to play. Unless one gets in foul trouble, these two are going to go at it and I don’t think much production will come from it. The Pistons are fifth in least points per game in the paint and the Hawks are seventh. The Pistons are ninth in DvP vs C’s and the Hawks are fourth. I really want to use Reggie Jackson against the Hawks backcourt who are 29th in DvP vs PG’s, but it’s tough to trust a player who hasn’t scored over 30 DK points in five straight games. At $5,700 on DK and $5,500 on FD, he has to be in consideration. On the flip side you can look at Dennis Schroder as the Pistons are 24th in DvP vs PG’s, but he as well is extremely inconsistent. He just posted a 17.5 DK point effort two games ago against Minnesota.
Can CJM Beat the Spurs?
The Trail Blazers finally got another win as they’ve now only won two of their last 12 games. Damian Lillard is doubtful for tonight as C.J. McCollum will continue to lead the way for Portland. In the last two games with Lillard out, McCollum has averaged 24.5 PPG and 7.0 APG. The Spurs are never a great matchup, but McCollum’s usage has bumped up 6.2% as he has a 34.6% usage without Lillard this season. Mason Plumlee‘s usage doesn’t bump but his production does as he averages 1.11 FPPM without Lillard. Kawhi Leonard missed his first game of the season as he dealt with flu-like symptoms last game. However, he seems to be on track to play tonight. At home against a depleted team, we could see head coach Gregg Popovich rest someone. However, the line is still SA -12.0. Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge are intriguing as Portland’s interior defense is 30th in DvP vs PF’s and 28th in DvP vs C’s.
Big Fella’s Grind Match
This will be a fun one as we get to see two young rising stars go at it in Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic. Jahlil Okafor left last game with a slight hamstring issue, but is on track to play tonight making this 76ers frontcourt another game of complete mess. I’ll focus on the backcourt as T.J. McConnell is the only healthy PG heading into Denver tonight. The last game he started he finished with 12 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists! At $3,300 on DK and $3,800 on FD against Denver who ranks 28th in DvP vs PG’s this season, welcome to my lineups Mr. McConnell. Nikola Jokic had another fantastic game against Minnesota last time out as he was two rebounds shy of a triple-double. He finished with 16 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds. The 76ers are 25th in DvP vs C’s and 23rd in rebounding differential. If Jokic can stay out of foul trouble and play 30+ minutes again tonight, he’ll be a fantastic option.
Curry Brother Battle
The Dallas Mavericks are playing on a back to back traveling to Golden State to take on the Warriors in Oracle Arena… BLOWOUT! The Mavericks are 4-14 on the road this season. Andrew Bogut is scared of this game as he’s already been ruled out, and you should be scared too. These two teams played back in early November and the Warriors were up 31 points at halftime. Granted the Mavericks were without Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews, but would it have mattered? The spread is currently GS -18.5 and quite honestly, it seems too high to take anyone on the Warriors as well. Dallas has been lethal vs opposing PG’s as they are second in DvP vs the position and Stephen Curry even though his salary always seems enticing, he just doesn’t have that trusted upside this season. Sure he blew up against New Orleans with 68.3 DK points, but he’s still averaging a moderate 42.7 DK points on the year.