The Morning Shootaround: Monday October 31st

Welcome everyone to the Morning Shootaround! This article is designed to give you an in depth breakdown of each day’s games. This article will include Vegas lines, offensive pace stats, defense vs position stats, and our recommendations on which players you should look at for both GPP and cash games.

The NBA has given us a short 4-game slate tonight for Halloween, highlighted by Boogie taking on Dwight Howard and the Atlanta Hawks. Don’t be scared to put the Boogie Man in your lineups tonight. (I will see myself out)

Also, since it is Halloween and we are in a giving mood, we have decided to offer you guys a treat! We are offering 10% off any of our memberships today using promo code “Halloween”. Head over to our memberships page now to take advantage of this offer!

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets

Team PGFPPG PGRk SGFPPG SGRk SFFPPG SFRk PFFPPG PFRk CFPPG CRk Pace
Brooklyn 45.11 27 37.95 25 39.17 21 43.86 23 48.59 25 97.4
Chicago 45.17 28 35.53 13 39.2 22 43.65 22 49.35 26 98.2

Vegas- Chicago -6 211.5 O/U

Chicago Projected Lineup- Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez

Brooklyn Projected Lineup- Jeremy Lin, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trevor Booker, Brook Lopez

Top Plays- Jeremy Lin, Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, Trevor Booker

Secondary Plays- Rajon Rondo, Bojan Bogdanovic, Justin Hamilton, Brook Lopez

This game has a ton of fantasy appeal tonight as both of these teams are terrible, both are fairly good at pushing pace, and both have a lot of cheap plays to target. Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, and Taj Gibson are my top targets from the Chicago side of the ball as Brooklyn is in the top 6 of fantasy points allowed to SG, SF, and PF. Wade, Butler, and Taj have the highest usage rates on the team and are all averaging over a fantasy point per minute after the first two games.Taj is still too cheap around the industry to ignore for cash games, but he will likely be one of the higher owned players on the night. I am okay with fading him due to ownership concerns in GPPs if you can find a comparable pivot.

If you haven’t watched a Bulls game yet this season, you probably don’t know how ugly Rondo’s defense is and this is the perfect spot to lock Jeremy Lin in your lineups. His price is slowly creeping up over on Draftkings and Fanduel, but he is still very capable of exceeding value tonight. He is a great cash game play due to his usage and floor, and he has plenty of upside to lock him in GPP lineups as well.

Even before BroLo sat out last game, Justin Hamilton was seeing 25+ minutes a night for Brooklyn. This is another spot where we can lock him in at a cheap price, especially since Chicago is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to centers so far this season. If Brook sits or struggles, Atkinson will yank him and Hamilton will play a lot of minutes.

Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors

Team PGFPPG PGRk SGFPPG SGRk SFFPPG SFRk PFFPPG PFRk CFPPG CRk Pace
Denver 43.25 19 38.02 26 40.57 26 44.26 25 45.5 9 98.2
Toronto 39.1 2 34.73 9 36.74 8 40.45 8 43.85 6 95.3

Vegas- Tor -7.5 204 O/U 

Toronto Projected Lineup- Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Pascal Siakam, Jonas Valanciunas

Denver Projected Lineup- Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic

Top Plays- Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Nikola Jokic

Secondary Plays- DeMarre Carroll, Will Barton

I should probably be more excited about this game from a fantasy perspective, but there just isn’t much I like here. Toronto is still very good on defense so that takes value away from most of the Denver players tonight. Gary Harris looks to return tonight, so that should put Barton back on the bench as their 6th man. It is unclear how many minutes Harris will play if he does return, so make sure you are keeping up with our GroupMe chat for news.

I think we can look to attack the Denver defense with Lowry, DeRozan and JVal tonight, with JVal and DeRozan being my two favorite plays of the bunch. DeRozan is coming in to tonight’s game with a 43.2% usage rate(yes, you read that correctly), which is an insane number. I expect that number to go down soon, but the matchup is too good to pass up here. We are finally getting to see JVal play over 30 minutes per game and he isn’t disappointing us. Valanciunas is averaging over 40 FPPG in his first two games, and a matchup against the Denver frontcourt is just about as juicy as it gets.

Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks

Team PGFPPG PGRk SGFPPG SGRk SFFPPG SFRk PFFPPG PFRk CFPPG CRk Pace
Atlanta 40.38 6 36.16 19 38.14 14 42.76 12 47.78 21 99.4
Sacramento 44.21 23 39.64 29 39.09 20 46.55 30 47.71 18 102.2

Vegas- ATL -7 201.5 O/U

Sacramento Projected Lineup- Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Gay, DeMarcus Cousins, Kosta Koufos

Atlanta Projected Lineup- Dennis Schroder, Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard

Top Plays- Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays- Rudy Gay, Ty Lawson, Tim Hardaway Jr.

Well we are almost a week in to the season and we have seen both good Boogie and bad Boogie on the court, with more bad than good. Cousins battled foul trouble in his matchup with Phoenix, looked outstanding as he dropped 63.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs, then dropped another dud against KAT and the Timberwolves. I really don’t know what version we will get tonight, but I do know that Boogie has struggled at times against both Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. I am still locking him in most of my lineups tonight, but I would also advise a fade of Boogie in at least one GPP lineup if you are rolling out multiple entries.

 

I am not quite ready to call the Dwight Howard experiment in Atlanta a success, but Howard has looked really good for the Hawks so far this season. He had a down performance against Philly their last time out but he only played 19 minutes so I am willing to throw that game out the window. He isn’t getting a lot of opportunities for shots in the offense, but he has accounted for almost 30% of the teams total rebounds and 25% of the teams offensive rebounds. Offensive rebounds lead to easy put-backs and that is where Dwight will get his scoring from. Sacramento can be beat down low, so this is a great spot to jump on him and Paul Millsap. Millsap continues to go overlooked and he has a really high floor for an inexpensive price. I will be trying to get him in my lineups as much as I can.

 

Phoenix Suns at L.A. Clippers

Team PGFPPG PGRk SGFPPG SGRk SFFPPG SFRk PFFPPG PFRk CFPPG CRk Pace
L.A. Clippers 39.87 5 33.59 4 37.26 10 43.15 17 46.43 12 98
Phoenix 46.44 30 38.78 28 40.57 25 42.8 13 46.49 13 100.9

Vegas-

Phoenix Projected Lineup- Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler

L.A. Projected Lineup- Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Luc Richard Mbah A Moute, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Top Plays- Chris Paul, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Secondary Plays- Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight

We haven’t quite seen the high-scoring, high-flying Baby-Faced Assassin we all fell in love with last season, but I know at some point Booker will turn things around and bust out for us, maybe that comes tonight? Booker’s role in this offense hasn’t changed drastically since last season, but I have a feeling the addition of Bledsoe is taking away some of his value. I am sure it will take some time for the two of them to get used to playing together, but once they do we should get the old version of Booker back. Until then, however, we can continue to lock T.J. Warren in to our lineups. The sites have started to catch on to the fact that Warren has been the teams best player so far this season, so we may only get one or two more nights of using him before his price gets too high. Warren has a 23% usage rate in this offense, is shooting over 60% from the field, and is averaging .95 fantasy points per minute in their first two games(These stats were pulled before the conclusion of the Golden State game where Warren dropped another 40+ DraftKings points).

Because of their fast pace and youth, Phoenix is currently one of the most turnover prone teams in the league averaging 16.5 turnovers per game. The extra turnovers in this game are going to be a big boost to the guys on the court the most for LA, meaning Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. Paul is already a lockdown defender that is great at forcing turnovers, so the increased turnover potential from Phoenix just boost his floor higher.

In their opening game against Portland, Blake Griffin dropped 55.75 DraftKings points and posted a usage rate north of 30%. In their matchup against Utah, Griffin posted 34.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes of play. Griffin is going to continue to be the focal point of this offense going forward, and he will continue to spend a lot of time as the primary ball handler when Paul is off the floor. I will chalk up his sub-par performance against Utah to the matchup, and lock him in my lineups today. Griffin has massive upside in this game, and I love him as a cheaper pivot off of Boogie.

 

 

Brent Heiden

Brent has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years now and made the transition over to DFS about two years ago. He is an avid NBA fan and enjoys looking at the sport from an analytical point of view. He is a cash game grinder but has enjoyed a lot of success in GPPs over the past two seasons, including a top-10 finish in the RotoWire MLB Championship. He has been writing MLB, NBA, and game theory articles for dfsdatalytics.com since it was founded. You can find him on Twitter @BrentHeiden1 and find all his articles on dfsdatalytics.com.

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