I’m going to do something a little different with this piece on this short slate tonight. We only have 4 games on tap, but there are still some really nice contests on all the DFS sites tonight so there is certainly money to be made. Since there is only 4 games, I’m going to break down the slate and give advice on constructing a GPP lineup tonight.
With only 8 pitchers to choose from, Zack Greinke will certainly be the overwhelming chalk and the highest owned pitcher by far. On 2 pitcher sites, the majority of ownership for SP2 will likely end up being split between Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS), Marco Estrada (TOR) and a little bit to Alex Meyer.
As far as bats go, the highest owned teams as a whole look to be the Blue Jays and Red Sox, and Vegas has those as the 2 highest implied totals. Arizona’s RHBs is only implied by Vegas for 4.2 runs currently, but they will grab some ownership as well going up against the lefty Jeff Locke, who is making his first start this year (shout out to our boy Josh Burkett @GWBuffalo7, who went to the same HS as Locke). I like all 3 of those teams, but you’ll need to get a little contrarian with how you do it. For the Red Sox, I think Young, Travis and Marrero are in the best spots for GPPs based on ownership and upside. For the Blue Jays, pivot Smoak over Morales, and wraparound Maile and Pillar. For the Diamondbacks, who are my favorite stack of the night by far, take Ahmed, Goldy, Tomas and min priced Jeff Mathis at C.
As for single bats, Goldy, Mookie, Donaldson, Bautista, Pillar and Chris Young (no surprise, top of the order as well) should be among the highest owned single bats.
If we breakdown how rosters can be constructed, using Greinke and either Rodriguez or Estrada doesn’t leave that much room to stack the biggest bats, so I think people going that route will take their choice of 1 big bat and spread the rest around with mid to low priced guys, or 2 big bats at the infield positions and punt everything else. The combo of Greinke/Meyer allows for a much more rounded lineup and full stacks.
Pivots and Leverage
While I don’t dislike any of those combinations, it’s not going to be very unique and having to rely on a bunch of near min-priced bats is not fun. I also think that the spot looks much better than it really is for Rodriguez and Meyer. Diving into the numbers, those 2 pitchers both have poor recent Statcast data. Regardless, a sharp play in GPPs for your lineups would be to take a bat or 2 from the opposing team as leverage against whichever 2 of those 3 SP2s you aren’t using in your lineup, because those bats will less ownership tonight than normal. If you aren’t using Rodriguez, for leverage from the O’s, I like Rickard (OF), Machado (3B), Hardy (SS) and Joseph (C), so fill out whichever position you need there. All of these guys are on the positive side of their splits, and only Machado has negative recent statcast data.
If you’re not using Estrada, either Hicks, Judge or Castro are the bats to take from the Yanks. All 3 have positive recent statcast data and splits as well.
If you’re not using Meyer, you don’t necessarily need to leverage against him, but Kepler is way too cheap and has been hitting well.
On a slate like tonight, I think you have to eat the chalk and take the raw expected points with Greinke, and then get contrarian elsewhere.
SPs – Greinke, Estrada, Rodriguez, Miley
C – Jeff Mathis, Luke Maile, Caleb Joseph, Jason Castro, Martin Maldonado
1B – Goldschmidt, Sam Travis, Joe Mauer, Bour
2B – Castro, Dozier
3B – Machado, Devin Marrero, Donaldson
SS – Nick Ahmed, JJ Hardy
High $ OF – Judge, Betts, Yasmany Tomas, Aaron Hicks
Lower $ OFs – Chris Young, Joey Rickard, Kepler, Pillar