PGA – Memorial – GPP Plays
CUT LINE: T70 – Field of 120
THE COURSE: Muirfield in Dublin, Ohio – 7,392 yards, Par 72, with wider fairways where a miss will cost dearly, 77 bunkers, and a lot of fast sloping greens. For a more detailed look at the course, check out the notes *here*
THE GPP PLAYS (One from each Pricing Tier):
$10000+: Rickie Fowler ($10300) – As the stars are ramping up before Oakmont and crowding the upper echelon of golfers, Rickie Fowler is the play that stands out above the rest. He’s 5th best at finding Greens in Regulation, gains 1.69 strokes off the tee, is 2nd & 4th in par-4 and -5 respectively, and the best at avoiding bogeys. The importance of putting has been stressed a bit more after a couple bad weeks, but Rickie ranks 34th in that regard picking up 0.39 strokes with the flat stick. When put together, his statistical prowess has him projected to win the whole thing. His best finish here is a 2nd, but he’s missed the last two cuts at Memorial as well as missing two cuts this season, which should push his ownership down a touch.
Projected finish: 1st
Projected ownership: 10%
$6500-7400: William McGirt ($6500) – “Dirt McGirt” is the 8th highest expected golfer on the board, and offers the 2nd best value versus expected return – $82/DK point. Like a lot of the names on this list, his game as a whole presents well for the course, even though there’s nothing he’s elite (read as: top-10) in. Above average in getting to the green and staying out of trouble, McGirt isn’t a big birdie player and he has trouble out of the sand on the rare occasions he ends up at the beach. With the projected cut this week being +1, not making birdies won’t be as important as not making bogeys, so expect him to make the cut and give a fantastic ROI that allows more spending in the top tier.
Projected finish: Top-10
Projected ownership: 10%
BONUS: Russell Henley ($7200) – It was a tough call here between Henley and Thomas Aiken – both $7200, close in certain stats (P5 scoring, strokes gained: tee to green) but far away in others (Aiken demolishes Henley in GIR and Driving Accuracy). But this week, with the higher weighting on putting, Russell actually ends up projected slightly higher due to his 0.36 strokes gained more than Aiken. Russell Henley is elite at bogey avoidance, accurate off the tee (40th), and can scramble at an above-average clip. Either/or is a good bet to make the good and finish in the top-20, and they both fit in nicely for a GPP lineup that stays away from the outlier golfers (below $6400, above $10500).
Projected finish: Top-20
Projected ownership: 7%
Good luck this week!
DFSDatalytics.com will be running a US Open tournament where the winner gets a free PGA YEARLY membership along with the cash prizes DK pays out, and it only costs $5 to enter so keep an eye out for a link in the coming weeks. DFSDatalytics staff will be playing along with you, so the top-performing non-staff member will win the membership.