Just Play Pacioretty

Hey everyone, I hope you are as excited as I am for the start of the hockey season. Equally as exciting is the start of DFS hockey on your favorite site. Opening night has a few intriguing games including the great rivalry game in Toronto. Vegas lines are not out yet, either are over/under’s needless to say with a little more than a week to go before opening night, the Canadians will be favored. The O/U could very well be 5.0 but assume that’s because of an expected lack of scoring on one Carey Price.

What that means for us of course is that Montreal should win and will likely score 3+ goals to do so. The Habs top scorer and newly minted captain is in for a big night. The DFS Hockey Projections Model has Pacioretty as the top play of the night; and it’s not even close. Let’s dig a little deeper and find out why he’s the best play of the night. The following data is ranked against the other eligible skaters for the night.

  • Even Strength Points/60
    • 5.57 (4th)
  • Even Strength Points/Game
    • 1.30 (3rd)
  • Expected Even Strength Points/Game
    • 1.67 (1st)
  • Expected Goal Points
    • 2.17 (1st)
  • Expected Shot Points
    • 1.66 (1st)
  • DraftKings Expected Points
    • 4.38 (1st)

Pacioretty is 0.63 expected points higher than the next skater on the docket. Let’s take a look at some team numbers as well. Montreal’s expected team pace (calculated by Corsi variance between team and opponent at the specific location) is 58.50 which is slightly above league average. The total game pace is expected to be 114.53 which is the highest of the night.

Toronto was the worst team on the slate in goals allowed, so although Montreal didn’t light the lamp at even a league average pace on the road last year, these numbers are more reflective of how poor Toronto was at keeping the puck out of the net at home last season.

The last DraftKings salary we have from last year is $8700 for Patches. If his salary opens at the same spot this year he’s expected to cost $1998 per point scored; which puts him in the middle of the pack for expected value. If his salary is anywhere lower than this, his value increases even more. He’s projected to be the highest scoring forward for the night. Fade at your own risk.

Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

ledgersko has 218 posts and counting.See all posts by ledgersko

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