Its All About That Pace

Game pace is probably something that’s most familiar to people who play DFS basketball. The concept has crept into football and hockey quickly thereafter. The premise is simple; the more shots that are directed at the net in a game the greater the chance for there to be scoring opportunities for your players. Volume is good in DFS.

The highest volume game of the night projects to be the tilt between the Penguins and Stars. The DFS Projections Model tabs the pace to be just over 113; which is five shots more than league average. No other game projects to have a similar game pace. 

Both of these teams already loaded with star talent bolstered their forward corps over the summer with Phil Kessel coming to Pittsburgh from Toronto and Patrick Sharp swapping Chicago red for Dallas green; Don’t be surprised if the game pace is actually higher than 113. Pens fans are salivating for a return to their high scoring days of old, and Dallas is looking to score their way back into the playoffs.

Dallas still has plenty of question marks on defense however; and if either team jumps out to a lead and the other has to play catch up we could see some real fireworks. Overall the Stars played 13 games last year with a game total of more than nine goals. The Stars averaged 3.12 goals per game at home last season and had a losing record; so there is plenty of scoring to go around. 

With two very good scoring lines going for both teams, in a highly anticipated matchup due to the off-season acquisitions for each team what are your options here? It comes down to “fade or not to fade” The answer to that question could decide the fate of your night. I know it did mine many times last year with Dallas. If you miss when Seguin and Benn go off, you might as well turn off GameCast put your phone away and go to sleep.

At this point of the season, no cash game play is prohibited on price alone; which makes fading top plays even more risky. On three of the four sites we project, Tyler Seguin is the highest projected scorer. The addition of him in your lineup is much more appealing on sites that do not count plus/minus. If this game turns into a fireworks show, it benefits you most on DraftKings. 

There is some value to be found in the top two scoring lines for each team as well. Cody Eakin is slated to skate at center between Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin for the Stars; and Sergei Plotnikov will skate on Evgeni Malkin’s left wing at even strength for the Pens. Both Eakin and Plotnikov should see second unit power-play duties. 

Top Dallas Projections: Tyler Seguin (5.20 DK, 4.87 FD, 4.74 FA, 5.53 DD) Jamie Benn (4.55 DK, 4.11 FD, 4.15 FA, 4.90 DD)

Top Pittsburgh Projections: Sidney Crosby (4.02 DK, 3.82 FD, 3.46 FA, 4.42 DD) Evgeni Malkin (3.89 DK, 3.78 FD, 3.35 FA, 4.31 DD)

(the numbers listed behind the name are the projected scoring totals for the player by site)

Today’s Complete Projections

 

Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

ledgersko has 223 posts and counting.See all posts by ledgersko

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