Get in the Cage: UFC 208 Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Get in the Cage for DFS Datalytics. Today we will be breaking down the long awaited UFC 208 pay-per-view. The women’s featherweight division will be getting underway this weekend. Holly Holm and Germiane de Randamie will both be vying to become the first ever women’s featherweight champion in history. The UFC has set up a stacked main card for UFC 208 in Brooklyn. It should be an entertaining main card with lots of potential finishes. The main question is, who is walking out with the belt at the end of the night? Let’s Get in the Cage and find out.

Under Card:

Rick Glenn (18-4-1) vs Phillipe Nover (12-7-1) – Featherweight (145 lbs)

DK Salaries: Glenn – $8,900 / Nover – $7,300

Vegas Odds: Glenn -200 / Nover +170

Odds to Finish: -200 (o 2 ½)

Rick Glenn had a disastrous showing in his UFC debut back in September. Glenn was dominated by a veteran wrestler and ate a total of 144 shots. It was honestly brutal to watch. It is rare to see a fighter that active with his striking, especially from a grounded position for the most part.  Glenn’s toughness however, is undeniable after that fight.He simply would not give in and defended two submission attempts in the process. He took that fight on short notice, so this time he will have a full training camp and an easier opponent as well. Glenn has 10 knockouts and five submissions on his resume thus far. He will have to work on his take down defense a great deal for this fight if he wants to have more success than he did in his first outing. Despite being on his back for much of the fight, Glenn was able to land 58 strikes.

Phillipe Nover has had a less than stellar UFC career to say the least. He has won one fight in his six attempts. In his most recent stint with the company, he has gone to the judges score cards each time, with just one victory. Nover’s striking output in his UFC career is just pitiful. He landed the most he ever has in his last fight and that was just 39 strikes. Nover uses his leg kicks to set up his striking. This is a tough bout to pick a winner, stylistically.

Nover often times relies on his ground game in order to win fights. If he uses that method, Glenn had serious issues defending take downs in his first UFC bout. Glenn will be the more active fighter on the feet and does have knockout potential. However, Nover will be weary of this and will likely get this to the ground and win from there. Don’t rule out a KO victory from Glenn if he connects. His boxing could keep Nover at bay. However, stylistically, I think this fight favors Nover.

Fight Prediction: Nover – Split Decision

Ryan LaFlare (12-1) vs Roan Carneiro (21-10) – Welterweight (170 lbs)

DK Salaries: LaFlare – $9,000 / Carneiro – $7,200

Vegas Odds: LaFlare -260 / Carneiro +220

Odds to Finish: -200 (o 2 ½)

Ryan LaFlare has had an impressive UFC career thus far, however, he has not stepped foot inside the octagon since December of 2015. Not competing in over two years could potentially develop some ring rust. LaFlare has yet to record a finish while in the UFC, showing he is typically not a finisher. LaFlare could be of value this weekend though. He is 5-1 in his career inside the octagon. LaFlare is a wrestler, whom has been able to score at least four take downs in four of his five UFC victories. He is able to effectively transition when on top as well, so if he is able to get the fight to the ground, LaFlare could score a lot of  grappling points on Draft Kings. He is not a very effective striker though, from what I have seen. He is fairly inaccurate and does not show heavy shots. He is 19/34 with his take down attempts, however.

Roan Carneiro, in his most recent stint with the UFC has a 2-1 record. Carneiro is a successful grappler, whom is known for his submissions. He is particularly dominant in the clinch. Carneiro though, really is not much of a striker. This is a fight that is in all likelihood going to the judges score cards. Carneiro, much like LaFlare, is very good when taking down his opponents. He exhibits some nicely timed take downs when inside the cage. Both of these fighters probably should be avoided when drafting this weekend. It should be a grappling match-up for the most part, though there simply should not be enough going on for either to be of value unless there is a finish. I think that is highly unlikely here.

Fight Prediction: LaFlare – Split Decision

Justin Willis (4-1) vs Marcin Tybura (14-2) – Heavyweight (265 lbs)

DK Salaries: Willis – $7,600 / Tybura – $8,600

Vegas Odds: Willis +135 / Tybura -155

Odds to Finish: -120 (o 2 ½)

Due to Luis Henrique dropping out of this fight, Justin Willis will fill in and make his UFC debut at 208. Willis has three TKO victories on his resume in his four professional wins. All of those fights ended in the first or right at the beginning of round two. Willis has shown that he has significant power, which should be expected from the heavyweight. He has fought on a big stage before with the World Series of Fighting, however he has not yet faced a UFC caliber fighter. If his opponent looks to take this into the later rounds, his conditioning will be a serious question mark for me.

Marcin Tybura is 1-1 in his brief UFC career thus far. He has impressed in both bouts, however really opened eyes in his last fight. Tybura has show exceptional evasiveness in his time inside the octagon. He has great head movement and has defended 72 percent of the strikes he has faced. Tybura has made drastic improvements in terms of his striking last time around and eventually ended the fight by landing a huge head kick. It is worth noting that Tybura has a lot more MMA experience than does Willis and it should show. He will also be giving up a few pounds here to Willis. Willis is a big man.  This fight will likely remain on the feet for it’s majority. Tybura is ever improving and I expect him to break this fight down and beat Willis strategically. He will need to use his evasiveness in which to do so and avoid the heavy shots.

Fight Prediction: Tybura – Rd 2 TKO

#6 Ian McCall (13-5-1) vs Jarred Brooks (12-0) – Flyweight (125 lbs)

DK Salaries: McCall – $8,100 / Brooks – $8,100

Vegas Odds: McCall -110 / Brooks -110

Odds to Finish: -220 (o 2 ½)

Will Ian McCall actually be fighting this weekend? He has withdrew from three fights in 2016. McCall is regarded as one of the best flyweights in the world today, however, he is nearing the end of his career it appears. This will be his first fight in over two years now. He last lost to the surging John Lineker. McCall is the type of fighter who cannot seem to beat the best competition in the division, though can beat the lower ranked fighters no problem. His number six ranking is actually about as accurate as it gets. He has the skills to defeat those ranked lower than him, though cannot defeat the top guys like Lineker, Demetrious Johnson or Joseph Benavidez. I will actually be surprised if he fights here simply based on his ongoing trend.

Jarred Brooks will be making his UFC debut this Saturday night in Brooklyn. Brooks is a perfect 12-0 entering this fight. He has five submission victories and 2 knockouts on his resume. Three of his five submissions have been via the rear-naked choke, though they were against much lesser competition. It will be difficult to wrap one of those up on a savvy veteran such as McCall. Brooks has proven to be at an elite level in MMA, though McCall should be able to handle him with relative ease I would think. McCall has done this for years inside the octagon. It will be too much too soon for Brooks. McCall is not the most accurate of strikers, but lands roughly three and half strikes per minute inside the octagon. McCall will be more of a draft for 50/50’s as opposed to tournaments.

Fight Prediction: McCall – Unanimous Decision

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Rob McGeorge

Lead MMA / NFL Analyst for DFS Datalytics. I have been watching MMA since 2008 and playing fantasy sports since 2012. Follow me on Twitter @CornontheRob12

rob-mcgeorge has 35 posts and counting.See all posts by rob-mcgeorge

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