Get in the Cage: UFC 206 Picks and Analysis
Welcome to another segment of Get in the Cage for DFS Datalytics. The UFC has put together another solid card from top to bottom for this weekend at UFC 206. The stacked lightweight division will be on showcase for you tonight as Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis will duke it out to see who is the better man in the main event. Perhaps, a future title shot is on the line here. There are plenty of finishers on this card including Donald Cerrone, Jordan Mein and Dooho Choi, so let’s not waste anymore time. Good luck to everyone playing Draft Kings this weekend.
Let’s Get in the Cage!
#7 Zach Makovsky (19-7) vs #10 Dustin Ortiz (15-6) – Flyweight (125 lbs)
DK Salaries: Makovsky – $8,500 / Ortiz – $7,700
Vegas Odds: Makovsky -160 / Ortiz +140
Odds to Finish: -360 (o 2 ½)
Zach Makovsky has fought for the UFC since 2013, where he has gone 3-3 through his first six fights. Makovsky has been able to beat the lower ranked fighters, but has lost to all of the next level competition he has faced. He has lost two straight to both John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez. Makovsky is a wrestler at heart. He was a D1 wrestler at Drexel University while he attended school. He is not a fighter that is particularly active with his striking. He certainly relies on his wrestling and grappling a great deal. Makovsky has been able to take his opponent down in five of his six UFC match-ups. He has gone to decision in every one of his fights inside the octagon, if that says anything about the type of fighter he is. He does time his take downs well, which often times aids in his victories.
Dustin Ortiz is a wrestler, much like his opponent. He too, is a fighter that often times goes to the judges score cards. Flyweight bouts often times go the distance because the fighters are so evasive, quick and durable. Ortiz is a scrappy fighter looking to move up the flyweight ranks this weekend. Ortiz has yet to be finished in his career, so this one certainly has the makings to go to decision with both of these fighters respective styles. What does not bode well for Ortiz at UFC 206 is his 55 percent take down defense rate. Facing a wrestler such as Makovsky, Ortiz may find himself on his back for much of this fight. I ultimately see this fight going one way and one way only: a Makovsky decision. Makovsky could potentially put up some solid points this weekend if he is able to land a few a take downs and transition. He has had multiple fights where he has been able to pass his opponent’s guard. I believe Makovsky should be a pretty solid bet this weekend and used in all formats, if you have the space.
Fight Prediction: Makovsky – Unanimous Decision
Jason Saggo (12-2) vs Rustam Khabilov (25-9) – Lightweight (155 lbs)
DK Salaries: Saggo – $7,100 / Khabilov – $9,100
Vegas Odds: Saggo +175 / Khabilov -210
Odds to Finish: -195 (o 2 ½)
Jason Saggo is 3-1 since entering the UFC. He has two knockout victories to his name thus far. Saggo has six first round finishes on his resume as well. He is primarily a grappling style fighter and showed some elite top game skills in his previous bout with Leandro Silva. He has eight submission victories in his professional career, despite showing off knockout power early on in the UFC. He has landed 9/21 take down attempts since his debut, which is impressive. However, what is not impressive is his success rate when defending them. He is merely 20 percent in that respect. Saggo has been impressive though, showing some solid combinations and head movement. He will look for another victory this weekend in his home country.
Rustam Khabilov will be participating in his fourth fight of 2016 at UFC 206. He is a perfect 3-0 this year with three unanimous decision victories. Khabilov was able to impose his wrestling skills in all three of those fights. He is 6-2 overall since entering the UFC. He is not regarded as a finisher. He has gone to decision in more than half of his professional fights. Khabilov, much like his opponent, is a skilled fighter on the ground. He has been able to get all but one opponent to the ground thus far in the octagon. He has completed 47 percent of his take downs attempts. Khabilov likes to push the pace and stalk his opponents. This could end up being a straight wrestling match from many standpoints, so I would likely avoid this fight when drafting a lineup. Khabilov is the favorite here and I would agree, however he is not worth his price of $9,100.
Fight Prediction: Khabilov – Split Decision