The First Pitch: Thursday May 18th

Listed by Draft Kings pricing

Jon Lester:

There’s a red flag I noticed right away with Lester. The Reds have shown an ability to avoid K’s against LHP’s this eason. Their 18% K% is the 5th lowest among teams. They also boast the 6th best team wOBA against LHP’s. Lester has of course been solid this season, but 3 of his last 5 starts have seen him allow 3+ earned runs. The K’s have been there with 18 combined over his last two starts. I wasn’t expecting to say this when I started this writeup but I think I’m GPP only on Lester. The blowup potential is there and if the Reds make some contact and avoid K’s the low floor we want in cash games suddenly disappears.

Marcus Stroman:

As I’m writing this the Braves are lighting up Biagini. They’ll face another RHP in Stroman on Thursday. Stroman has been on a nice run lately, but the Braves are rocking a solid 19.9% K% against RHP’s. I don’t love this matchup and think this turns into a 6IP 4K 4ER start. That’s not worth paying up for.

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Adam Jazdzewski

I am the founder and owner of DFS Datalytics. I've been stats minded even as a kid. I used to write down my own stats in NHL '95, I've played season long fantasy sports since the mid 90’s and have made the jump to DFS three seasons ago. I specialize in NHL and NASCAR. Catch my on twitter @LedgerSko and @DFSDatalytics #DataForWinning

ledgersko has 223 posts and counting.See all posts by ledgersko

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