Listed by Draft Kings pricing
There’s a red flag I noticed right away with Lester. The Reds have shown an ability to avoid K’s against LHP’s this eason. Their 18% K% is the 5th lowest among teams. They also boast the 6th best team wOBA against LHP’s. Lester has of course been solid this season, but 3 of his last 5 starts have seen him allow 3+ earned runs. The K’s have been there with 18 combined over his last two starts. I wasn’t expecting to say this when I started this writeup but I think I’m GPP only on Lester. The blowup potential is there and if the Reds make some contact and avoid K’s the low floor we want in cash games suddenly disappears.
As I’m writing this the Braves are lighting up Biagini. They’ll face another RHP in Stroman on Thursday. Stroman has been on a nice run lately, but the Braves are rocking a solid 19.9% K% against RHP’s. I don’t love this matchup and think this turns into a 6IP 4K 4ER start. That’s not worth paying up for.