DFS Baseball Primer Part I

Hey guys, the MLB season is finally upon us and that means the DFS grind begins! I will be writing articles on a daily basis to help assist you with your player selections and your lineup construction. Each article will coincide with our projections for the most part. The prices I list will be based on DraftKings pricing. Lets jump into things!

Pitchers- DraftKings has two pitcher spots that you need to fill. I’ve run into a lot of people that think they have to roster the pitcher that gets you a win. In 2015 49.5% of starting pitchers got the win and while the 4 point bonus is nice, it’s not as big of a deal as one might think. I usually try to spend around $19,000-$20,000 on both of my pitchers combined. I aim for a strikeout rate of 22% or higher for my pitchers. This stat is king for pitchers since DK rewards you with 2 points per strikeout.

Earned runs allowed on the other hand are -2 points per run.  I highly recommend fading all pitchers that play in Coors field unless you are trying to be extremely contrarian in GPPs. Vegas usually has the full game run total set at around 11 for most games so it is best to target hitters there whenever possible. In cash games I tend to target pitchers that are in games with a projected run total of 7.5 or less and a decent sized favorite (-140 or higher). Pitchers will accumulate points as follows:

  • Inning Pitched = +2.25 PTs
  • Strike Out = +2 PTs
  • Win = +4 PTs
  • Earned Run Allowed = -2 PTs
  • Hit Against = -0.6 PTs
  • Base on Balls Against = -0.6 PTs
  • Hit Batsman = -0.6 PTs
  • Complete Game = +2.5 PTs
  • Complete Game Shut Out = +2.5 PTs
  • No Hitter = +5 PTs                                                                                                                                 

Batters:- There are many different strategies that can be used when selecting hitters. I am a huge fan of stacking batters (2 or more batters from the same team) in GPPs. Lets say the Blue Jays have a juicy match up and you stack the 1-5 hitters. Every hitter that gets on base gets you points obviously but the correlation is huge when you have a batter that knocks in RBIs ahead of him. Mini stacking is another option that I have had success with. I will look at players that are projected high and that are batting back to back on the same team. Also pay attention to these batters split stats (lefty vs righty, righty vs lefty) as you can sometimes find lower owned guys who can produce in a big way.

For cash games I recommend selecting players from our projections that have a high floor and are consistent; at least as consistent as you can be for baseball. For large tournaments look at the players with high upside and value as they will usually be lower owned for the most part which plays a pivotal part in winning a GPP.

You want to target batters towards the top of the order since they will get more plate appearances and are generally the better hitters in the lineup. The only exception is if you want to target a certain game IE Coors Field or a game with a high run total. You can get cheaper exposure and a lower ownership rate by stacking the back end of the order.

Batting orders can be very fluid so make sure you are checking them throughout the day or close to game lock. We recommend Baseball Press. There are times where you can find a cheap batter with good splits that got bumped up towards the top of the order. This only increases that players value and can be a big difference in cashing and not cashing. Once the season begins I will have daily articles on pitchers, batters, recommended team stacks and lineup construction. You can hit me up on twitter day or night with any questions, comments or concerns at @afish84. 

Aaron Fischer

I am the Lead Baseball Analyst at DFS Datalytics. As a kid I grew up playing all four major sports, some organized at times and some not so organized. I have always been interested in stats and what they mean to each sport and individual player. I started playing fantasy fantasy football 14 years ago and I transitioned to DFS about four years ago. I specialize in NHL and MLB but I play all DFS sports on a regular basis. I am on twitter @fish84. #DataForWinning

mnwild84 has 54 posts and counting.See all posts by mnwild84

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