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The second leg of the Fed Ex Cup playoffs brings the PGA Tour to TPC Boston for the Deutsche Bank Championship, where it’s been held every year tracked (back to 2005). That’s good news for statistical analysis because it offers a much better sample size of the stats required to take the tournament down. The second leg is still a T70 cut event even though the field is only 100 golfers (now
98 97 with Kevin Na withdrawing and Danny Willett choosing to play on the European Tour and now Alex Cejka WD), and after this week the top -70 FedEx Cup golfers advance to next week at the BMW.
TPC Boston is just outside Boston, MA (obviously) and plays at 7290 yards as a par-71. It was designed by Arnold Palmer originally but in 2007 was re-designed by Gil Hanse who also designed the Rio course as well as this year’s Scottish Open. The major elements of the re-design were added chocolate drops (basically a mound of earth in the shape of a chocolate drop) to replace fairway bunkers, as well as some added fescue for golfers that miss too far to either side off the tee.
There are nine par-4s between 400 and 500 yards, a driveable par-4 4th that’s actually 50~ yards longer than it used to be, three par-5s that are all reachable in two for longer hitters, and four par-3s that play up to 231 yards and are some of the harder holes on the course. The par-3 16th is guarded by water, but water is fairly scarce on the course so not a big concern there – it comes into play really only three or four times.
The fairways are wider than some of the courses seen in recent weeks, and the rough will be a bit longer than last week but also thinner which ends up being easier to hit out of. As mentioned there’s fescue in play for anyone that really sprays their tee shot as well as trees in play, but the real concern on this course is the bunkers; the par-4 12th is the only hole that doesn’t have one, and there are some very large, very dangerous bunkers that will easily come into play. The best example here would be on the 600-yard par-5, where the bunker crosses the entire fairway, but there are also some blind shot fairway bunkers as well.
Greens at TPC Boston are fairly straight-forward minus some undulation, but they tend to slope front to back and are all well-guarded by bunkers. They’re bentgrass greens, and will play about the same speed as Bethpage Black last week.
This course is the 6th easiest in PGA Champion Scoring, and has an average cut of 0.54 – expect the winner to be in the -16 to -22 range, and the cut to be 1 or 2.
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Greens in Regulation: 100+ Yards
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Par-4 Scoring
- Par-5 Birdie or Better
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Good Drive Percentage
It’s so important this week to get 6/6 with at least one high-finishing golfer, that paying up for at least one stud is a must. With only 28 golfers (or less) missing the cut and a fairly high scoring course, not getting 6 through the weekend will mean you win $0.00 this week. That means that the stars & scrubs model is fairly risky which makes it a great tournament play, but must be avoided in cash.
You’ll want to look at balanced lineups, but it’s better to grab your high-priced stud first and build from there this week. There’s lots of value in the middle range, so a balanced lineup with one star and one pseudo-scrub would be a good play. The projections highlight some of the better scoring golfers on tour, and that’s the type of player you’ll want to focus on this week: birdie makers.