CorsiHL’s Daily SMASHBOARD – February 1st, 2018

It’s a new month, and we’ve got a great slate to kick it off here. Twelve games, only two teams on the second end of a back-to-back, and nowhere that should dominate ownership to the point we should avoid it. I am becoming more of a proponent of “don’t pay up” on these huge slates, as there are almost always several different paths to victory with so many games and lines in play. I’ll be running out a new format today – so please provide any feedback you’d like!

Top Stacks (listed in order of games, not order of preference):

TOR2: Marleau-Kadri-Marner, $15.0K:  The Leafs’ absolutely steamrolled the Islanders last night, and the newly united Kadri-Marner duo kept rolling. In three games together this line is generating 18.67 HDCF/60 and 44.81 SCF/60. It’s a small sample, but they’ve been dominant, playing high event hockey at both ends. The Rangers are a poor defensive team at 5v5 and TOR2 should avoid the Hayes line…additionally, the Rangers’ PK has been struggling lately as well. Point-per-dollar, I absolutely love the Kadri-Marner mini-stack with PP1 correlation, and the full line stack makes a ton of sense today too. D-man correlation: Jake Gardiner, $5,000 (PP)

BUF1: Kane-Eichel-Okposo, $17.9K:  I’m reluctant to fall for this trap again, but we can’t ignore Jack Eichel’s recent play and the matchup he’ll get here. BUF1 should see a lot of the Panthers’ top line, who have struggled defensively in a small sample since swapping Huberdeau with Bjugstad. It’ll be high-event line vs. high-event line, and I give the edge to Eichel here. This is also a fantastic PP spot for Eichel and Okposo, with a red-hot PP against a PK that’s generally overachieved this season with a no-name goalie in net. Yes, we should be targeting Harri Sateri every start he gets until the Panthers get healthy. D-man correlation: Rasmus Ristolainen, $5,400 (5v5, PP)

N.J1: Hall-Hischier-Bratt, $16.9K:  The GOAT Taylor Hall is back and healthy, with five shots and a goal in his return Tuesday. Hall drags his entire line onto this Top Stacks list, so I don’t mind rolling Hall as a one-off or a Hischier-Hall mini-stack here. The Flyers are an average-at-best defensive team who are prone to the blowout game…and coming off a loss in Washington last night, they’ll likely be rolling out Alex Lyon in goal to make his first NHL start. The PP spot is great for the Devils here as well, but we don’t get any correlation with it, which further promotes the idea of just rolling a Hall bullet here. D-man correlation: Sami Vatanen, $4,100 (5v5)

ANA1: Rakell-Getzlaf-Silfverberg, $18.5K:  Just look at all the red boxes besides the Senators…this team is just horrendous. Ryan Getzlaf and Rickard Rakell have played very well together since Getzlaf’s return from injury, and Silfverberg is probably the best W they’ve been lined up with yet. Getzlaf is an elite distributor and Rakell and Silfverberg are both great shooters and finishers. This line just makes so much sense on paper, and they’re getting one of the best matchups on the board. There could be 10-15% ownership here when all is said and done, but this is a really strong spot that I won’t be fading today. D-man correlation: Cam Fowler, $5,200 (PP).

EDM1: Cammalleri-McDavid-Draisaitl, $16.6K:  I can’t count the number of times this line has been a dud and a letdown, but we’ve got to take a long hard look at going back here tonight. Nathan MacKinnon *is* the Colorado Avalanche. He won’t be playing tonight, which leaves a giant hole in the Avs’ already top-heavy lineup. The Oilers *should* come out rolling here after Cam Talbot’s promise to make the playoffs, and a general desperate need to win hockey games and get back into the race (#NarrativeStreet). We don’t have a ton of numbers to support how awful Colorado really is without MacKinnon, but this should be one of the top spots on the board tonight. McDavid getting competent linemates (ok, one competent linemate) is a big plus here as well. D-man correlation: Oscar Klefbom, $4,400 (PP)

 

Secondary Stacks (listed in order of games, not order of preference):

NYR1: Buchnevich-Zibanejad-Nash, $15.9K:  This line has pretty strong underlying offensive numbers, and generally play high event hockey. They’re catching the suddenly high-event Leafs on the second half of a back-to-back with a banged up blueline…given the reasonable price tag, these guys are definitely worth a flyer today. D-man correlation: Ryan McDonagh, $4,800 (PP)

BOS1: Heinen-Bergeron-Pastrnak, $19.4K:  This feels like an overpay given the matchup, but this could be a sneaky spot in the likely event that BOS1 will be skating against Paul Stastny and Vladimir Tarasenko. I definitely won’t go overboard here, but there’s some merit to playing these guys as they’re fully correlated and have big upside. D-man correlation: Torey Krug, $5,300 (PP)

CAR3: Skinner-Ryan-Stempniak, $13.0K:  The underlying numbers on this line are crazy-good over the past couple weeks…Jeff Skinner in particular has taken 13 shots over his past two games, and appears to be heating up again. There’s always a concern with ice time and lack of PP1 time with these guys, but at their price, it’s a sneaky value stack. D-man correlation: Noah Hanifin, $3,700 (PP)

WPG2: Ehlers-Little-Perreault, $15.9K:  This line has been excellent since Mark Scheifele went down…16.67 HDCF/60 over their past seven games together. They’ll likely get hard-matched with VGK2, which is probably the best matchup we’ll see for the Jets tonight. I won’t be going overboard here, but it’s a decent spot for a great line. D-man correlation: Tyler Myers, $4,000 (5v5, PP)

T.B2: Johnson-Point-Gourde, $15.8K:  The second line for the Lightning will almost completely avoid the 3M line tonight, and they should see a lot of the high-event and defensively soft Gaudreau line. We’ll get full PP2 correlation here, and the 5v5 offensive numbers for the Point-Johnson combo have been excellent for quite some time. D-man correlation: Mikhail Sergachev, $4,300 (PP)

CGY2: Frolik-Backlund-Tkachuk, $14.6K:  The 3M line is back together, and they had some very strong underlying numbers against VGK1 in their first game back. They’ll draw an exploitable matchup against T.B1 here, and we should expect more goals to fall for this line in the second half after some brutal puck luck in the first half. D-man correlation: Dougie Hamilton, $5,100 (5v5)

DAL1: Radulov-Seguin-Benn, $22.3K:  I’d be remiss to not give these guys a mention, but I certainly won’t be going here. This price is absurd when we have eleven other games to figure out ways to get there. The Coyotes were also playing some much better hockey heading into the break…full pass here for me, but on paper this spot deserves mention. D-man correlation: John Klingberg, $6,700 (PP)

CHI1: Duclair-Toews-DeBrincat, $14.5K:  These guys almost make the cut for Top Stacks tonight, as they’ve been one of the hottest lines in hockey. They’ve only played three games together, but they’ve produced 45.51 SCF/60 in that period. They should see a lot of Brandon Sutter tonight, and this is definitely an exploitable matchup. D-man correlation: Jordan Oesterle, $3,800 (PP)

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