Welcome to “The 6th Man” everyone! This article is designed to give you an in depth breakdown of the best value plays for tonight’s NBA slate.
As always, make sure you cover your bases and read Brent and Tyler’s work written earlier in the day before coming here. It’ll help you figure out how you wanna construct your rosters before filling them up with your value plays.
I’m already in love with so many of these games so let’s begin …
Sergio Rodriguez (DK $4300, FD $4400, 18.3 USG)
We’ve already received news that Jerryd Bayless is going to miss tonight’s game (wrist) against the Kings.
Sergio has seen a small price bump since the last game he started for Bayless but it’s still cheap enough to take advantage of. With Embiid back, you would think that he takes away all the fantasy goodness from him but that’s just not true. Rodriguez only sees .04 less fantasy points per minute with Embiid on the court and he’ll also be playing without Embiid for large chunks of the game so in all reality, that doesn’t even matter.
You may also notice when looking at DvP numbers that Sacramento has been fairly decent when defending PG’s this season and that actually true. They’re allowing the 10th fewest points to opposing PG’s this year.
With Sergio, it should be different because if you look at his skill set, the Kings are actually terrible at defending guards like him. Sergio gets his fantasy production mainly from assists. Well, the Kings give up the 6th most assists to PG’s so that’s definitely in his favor. His biggest games this season have also been due to hitting some threes. The Kings give up the 7th most 3’s to PG’s. What makes the Kings DvP numbers look so good is their ability to limit PG’s to score a lot of real life points. But as I mentioned above, that’s not the kind of player he is so you shouldn’t be worried at all when looking at the DvP.
Also worth noting . . . In the 14 games he’s played 25 minutes or more, he’s averaging just over 27 DKPTS per game. For his salary, you’d be thrilled with that kind of production.
Honorable Mentions: Jamal Murray, Andrew Harrison, Wade Baldwin IV, Jose Calderon
Rodney Stuckey (DK $3900, $4000, 25.9 USG)
This game is going to be awesome for fantasy purposes. Portland is the worst defensive team in the league playing at the 8th fastest pace. With C.J. miles and Paul George already declared out, feel free to load up on Pacers.
Besides Glenn Robinson III, maybe no one has benefitted more with the added opportunity than Rodney Stuckey.
When Stuckey is on the court without Miles or PG13, his USG% jumps up to 28.1. He’s finally playing his normal minutes since returning from injury, which is about the 25 minute range. The second unit is run by him when he’s in the game and going up against a POR team that likes to play small anyways, he may see even more playing time.
Over the last 3 games PG13 has sat, Stuckey is averaging 25.3 mpg and 26.27 DKPTS per game. It’s taken him a while to get here but Stuckey is officially back in our lives.
On top of him taking advantage of the situation, only 2 teams give up more fantasy points to SG’s and only 4 teams give up more real life points to SG’s than Portland. Boy, oh boy does Stuckey love to score. He’s taken double digit field goal attempts in all 3 games PG13 and Miles have missed. It’s the perfect recipe.
Honorable Mentions: Wesley Matthews, Tony Allen, Rodney McGruder, Kyle Korver, Nick Stauskas, Gerald Henderson, Justin Holiday (if Noah is out), Garrett Temple, Wayne Ellington, Isaiah Canaan (if Wade sits)
Troy Williams (DK $4000, FD $3700, 18.5 USG)
So before we go on, lemme tell you who’s not playing for the Grizzlies: Mike Conley, James Ennis, Chandler Parsons, Vince Carter, Brandon Wright and Zach Randolph
You gotta see where I’m going here, right?
I don’t like this game in general because these are two of the slower paced teams in the league but with how thin this team is, there’s a real possibility that Williams and a couple other guards in this backcourt can see up to 36 minutes. Shit, maybe even 40 if this game stays miraculously close. The Raptors are currently 13.5 favorites. That spread should be closer to 20 but whatever. You get my point.
Williams is now averaging 21.6 DKPTS over his last three games and has already been seeing a nice amount of playing time (31 and 35 over his last two). The price has come up to the point where he doesn’t have much upside but the floor should be safe. For tourney’s, I’d recommend looking elsewhere because of how limited his ceiling is.
Averaging .85 DKPTS per min with everyone off the floor, I can’t see more than 30 DKPTS but considering I’m mainly a cash game player, I’m fine with that.
Honorable Mentions: Glenn Robinson III, Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Robert Covington, Matt Barnes, Terrence Ross, Justin Anderson
Nikola Mirotic (DK$4400, FD $4200, 20.0 USG)
Remember the last time the Bulls played the Lakers? They were without Dwyane Wade. Mirotic started at SF and Butler slid to shooting guard. In that game, Mirotic went HAM recording a massive 15-15 double double for 39.3 DKPTS. Well guess what? The Bulls and Lakers are playing each other again tonight and Wade is doubtful (teeth).
Much like POR, the Lakers are the 4th fastest team in the league with the second worst defense. Feel free to load up on Bulls!
This saddens me to say this as a die hard Bulls fan but Mirotic is having his worst year of his brief 3 year career. His point totals are down, his assists are down, his three point percentage is down. It’s just a down kinda year for the guy that I had such high hopes for when the Bulls drafted him a few years back. But I know there’s immense upside with him. I’ve seen it numerous times. Even this year, he’s had 3 games where he went off for 41.0, 43.3 and 39.3 DKPTS.
If there’s ever a team that can bring that upside out of you, it’s these Lakers. Those big games he had were against these Lakers, Brooklyn and Was. All very poor defending teams.
A lot of this love is coming with the idea that he’ll be starting again tonight. If he doesn’t, I may back off just a bit.
As I’m typing this, news just broke that Milsap is now questionable for tonight’s game against PHO. So if he ends up sitting, Muscala immediately jumps Mirotic as my fav PF value of the night.
Honorable Mentions: Nikola Jokic, Ersan Ilyasova, Jon Leuer, Jarell Martin, Joffrey Lauvergne
Ed Davis (DK $3600, FD $3600, 11.8 USG)
Note: Ed Davis is PF eligible on FD. The cheapest center over there I’d consider would be Robin Lopez
I’m not much of an Ed Davis guy personally. To be honest, I hoped that we’d get a Drummond suspension so we can lock and load Baynes but if that hasn’t happened by now, it’s likely not happening.
Davis usually has maybe one big game a month and he just had his last week against the Knicks. What has me considering him here is that he’s finally starting to see decent minutes, which has always been a worry of rostering him. He’s averaging 25.25 minutes per game over his last 4 and with Aminu still out, those minutes should still be there.
His USG% is so low and he only averages .72 DKPTS per min so he’s not going to be too valuable unless he sees decent playing time. Here’s what we know about the Pacers when defending power forwards: They give up a shit ton of rebounds to them. 13.72 to be exact which is 3rd worst in the league.
Davis’ best fantasy games are usually the ones where he’s able to get near double digit rebounding numbers. Everyone is aware where the offense comes from in POR and that’s from the backcourt but if Davis can get maybe 8-10 rebounds, he should easily meet value considering how low his price tag is.
I likely won’t go here but if you really need to save, I don’t mind it at all.
Keep in mind that on Draft Kings, Muscala is also center eligible so if we get word before lock that Milsap indeed sits, he’s your guy. I’m aware that Mike Scott is back but this being his first game in so long, I’d expect his minutes to be really limited.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle O’Quinn (if Noah sits), Guillermo Hernangomez (if Noah sits), Tyson Chandler, Enes Knter