Welcome to Part 2 of DFS Datalytics new PGA content! Yesterday I gave you the course preview, today are my top plays and some low owned GPP dart options to hopefully help you take down a GPP for the Honda Classic! Let’s get right to it! (Quick note, all pricing is for Draft Kings)
Sergio Garcia: $10,500 – As I mentioned yesterday, Sergio is my favorite play this week. He checks all of the boxes across the board and I love that he ranks #1 in my model in SG:T2G and SG:App. The only negative I can find this week is that he will likely be the highest owned golfer, however I am more than willing to eat the chalk on Sergio this week and will be well overweight on him.
Rickie Fowler: $11,700 – Like Sergio, Rickie will be chalky this week but that won’t scare me away from playing him. PGA National is all about limiting your mistakes and capitalizing when you can. Rickie won’t play timid and isn’t afraid of this course. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a final group of Rickie/Sergio on Sunday.
Adam Scott: $7,700 – I’m hoping that getting away from the Poa greens helps out Scott’s putting a bit because other than his putting he has been playing really well lately. He sits at #2 in my model in SG:App and #5 in SG:T2G, not to mention he has won here in the past. He also knows that he needs to play well this week to get into the top 50 in the World Golf Ranking to qualify for Mexico next week.
Graeme McDowell: $7,3000 – Statistically GMac looks like a great play this week. He has great course history and won’t let the wind negatively impact his play. His recent form leaves a little to be desired but I’m willing to look past that this week. GMac is my favorite play in the $7,500-$7,000 range.
Rory McIlroy: $11,500 – Rory’s recent course history here is not great and nothing about his stats jump off the page but I think a Rory run is coming sooner rather than later and I want to be on it when it happens. Rory is a world class player who is not far away from going on a dominant run and has had success here in 2012 and 2014. His wedge game and putting has just been slightly off lately but as soon as those get cleaned up watch out. I will gladly pivot off of Rickie to Rory in some GPP lineups as it would not surprise me to see Rory at the top of the leader board on Sunday. Right now he’s looking to be around 10% owned and I think this might be the last time he is that low owned moving forward. My hot take of the week is that a Rory/Sergio stack wins the $100k top prize in the Dogleg.
Russell Knox: $9,000 – I’m glad to see Knox priced at 9k because I think that will scare some people off and keep his ownership fairly low. Knox lives in FL and besides missing the cut last year has done well at PGA National. Over his last 5 tournaments he has gained an average of 4.1 SG:T2G and has made the cut in 9 of his last 10 events. Knox is a solid ball striker and I expect him to be towards to top in SG:App and SG:T2G this week.
Martin Kaymer: $8,000 – Kaymer is a steady, cut making machine who I think has a sneaky chance of winning this week. Nothing about his stats are overly impressive but nothing scares me either. He’s been a little under the radar lately and had a decent showing last week at the Genesis. Kaymer is on record saying that he prefers courses that are difficult and make you think while you play and I can’t think of a better description for PGA National than that. Kaymer plays a lot over in Europe and won’t be intimidated by the wind or the Bear Trap.
Jason Dufner: $8,600 – We haven’t seen Dufner tee it up in a while but that just means that he should be well rested and ready to roll. Duf is 8 for 8 in cuts at PGA National and I don’t see any reason why it won’t be 9 of 9 after Friday. His recent putting struggles are a little worrisome but he sits at #7 in my model in SG:T2G. If he can avoid the big numbers I like him as a Top 30 finish this week.
Chris Kirk: $7,2000 – I was surprised to see Kirk so high in my model this week but after digging a little I really like him this week. He’s gained an average of 3.1 SG:T2G over his last 10 tournaments and has much better numbers on Bermuda than Poa. Kirk sits in the Top 10 in my model in Scrambling, SG:App, SG:T2G, Proximity:175-200 yards and Bogey Avoidance. At $7,200 he provides some nice salary relief to take some of the big guns.
Ian Poulter: $7,200 – Another guy I like at $7,200, Poulter has placed inside the Top 50 at this event 3 years in a row. In 2015 he gained a ridiculous 7.7 SG:T2G and 11.2 SG:Total. Poulter sits at #2 in my model in Bogey Avoidance and as long as he doesn’t shank any shots into the water I expect him to be on the top half of the leader board in this event again come Sunday.
Low Priced, Low Owned GPP Darts:
This is the part of DFS PGA where you need to find a low owned guy who can sneak in the top 5 and win you a GPP. These are all risky plays, but if we can hit one or two and you combine them with 4-5 guys up top you can be looking at a nice little Sunday. For reference I consider low owned darts to be under 3% owned and under $7,200.
Jim Furyk: $6,900 – Furyk is the ultimate GPP dart this week as he’s missed his last two cuts losing strokes all over the place and he hasn’t played the Honda since 2012 where he also missed the cut. So why is he on this list you ask? Somehow Jim sits at #5 overall in my model and his stats look pretty good. He sits at #3 in SG:App, #10 in SG:T2G and #11 in Bogey Avoidance. I wouldn’t recommend playing a lot of Furyk but he’s worth a flyer in a GPP or two. If he makes the cut he’ll easily reach value and at under 1% projected ownership if he keeps the ball in play and hits some greens he can get you a lot of DK points that others won’t be getting.
Ben Martin: $7,000 – Ben Martin has made 5 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and is 2 for 2 in cuts made at the Honda Classic. He’s gained an average of 3.6 SG:Total over his last 5 events and if he can find the fairways here he has the chance to post a Top 50. At sub 2% projected ownership I think Matin is a fine GPP dart play.
Sean O’Hair: $6,800 – My last dart of the week has made the cut at the Honda 5 of the last 6 years and has made 4 cuts in a row on the PGA tour. O’Hair has positive SG:T2G here the past 6 years and positive SG:App 5 of the last 6 years. If he continues this trend I like his value here at $6,800 and a project sub 1.5% ownership.
That’s it for now, I’ll check weather and ownership tonight and update as needed!